Russia Expects Fewer Exports and Lower Oil Prices This Year

Russia downgraded its outlook for exports this year and lowered expectations for the price for its oil, developments that may force the government to dip into its wealth fund to cover wartime spending.

The Economy Ministry forecast a 5.3% decline in exports to 410.6 billion rubles ($5 billion), down from an earlier projection of 445 billion rubles, the Interfax news service reported on Monday. The updated macroeconomic outlook also included a lower price for Urals oil of $56 a barrel, versus $69.70 seen earlier.

While the revised outlook means Russia’s government will receive less revenue from its oil sales, it won’t be a game changer for the Kremlin’s ability to finance its war machine. Rising revenue from non-energy sectors and its ample rainy-day reserves will help offset losses. Russia’s National Wealth Fund has sufficient resources to make up any shortfall in oil revenue for the next 18-24 months — even if the country’s crude were to cost around $50 a barrel. 

Urals oil, Russia’s main export blend, slumped to $52.76 a barrel at the Baltic Sea port of Primorsk earlier this month, data from Argus Media show. It was last below $50 in June 2023.

The Economy Ministry forecast Brent at $68 dollars a barrel, down from $81.70. The price for Brent briefly fell to a four-year low of below $60 a barrel earlier this month after China and the US escalated their tit-for-tat trade war and the OPEC+ group pledged to boost output next month.

The ministry kept the 2025 growth forecast at 2.5%, while downgrading its 2026 outlook to 2.4% from 2.6% seen earlier. Officials acknowledged persistent price growth despite the central bank’s record-high 21% key rate, forecasting inflation at 7.6% at year end, up from 4.5% in its last projection.