Oil Prices Steady in Choppy Trade Ahead of OPEC+ Meeting, Thanksgiving

Oil Prices Steady in Choppy Trade Ahead of OPEC+ Meeting, Thanksgiving
Crude struggled to find a direction in the last session before the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday.
Image by Torsten Asmus via iStock

Oil steadied and time spreads strengthened as OPEC+ is expected to delay a production restart, a decision that would help stave off a looming supply glut. 

Crude struggled to find a direction in the last session before the US Thanksgiving holiday, as a cease-fire between Israel and Hezbollah and falling refined products futures countered bullish expectations that OPEC+ will choose to extend production curbs on Sunday. WTI was little changed, settling below $69 a barrel. Brent also steadied to settle below $73.

“We’re sort of stalemated today given the levity of various bullish and bearish inputs,” said John Kilduff, co-founder of Again Capital LLC. “It’s hard when you can’t ostensibly trade for a day heading into a holiday on low volumes.” 

In the US, tumbling gasoline and diesel futures also weighed on the oil market. Inventories of the motor fuel reached the highest in more than two months in the Gulf Coast last week, according to fresh government data, while implied diesel demand plunged to a 15-year seasonal low. Prices for both fuels touched the lowest in more than a week.

A 60-day cease-fire between Israel and Hezbollah began Wednesday, a first step in ending a conflict that has roiled the Middle East for more than a year. While the prospect of peace pulled prices lower, traders remain wary that the Middle East conflict could continue.

“The Middle East is still a tinderbox,” Kilduff said.

That threat of supply disruption has helped near-term time spreads strengthen, with US crude’s prompt spread firming to about 38 cents a barrel after dipping briefly into a bearish contango structure earlier this month.  

Crude has traded in a narrow $5 range this month, buffeted by weak fundamentals and uncertain geopolitical risk. At the moment, the market is contending with myriad bearish headwinds: muted demand from top oil buyer China, a nascent global supply glut and easing tensions in the Middle East. The options market has begun pricing in fading geopolitical risk, and hundreds of thousands of bullish calls expired worthless Tuesday. 

The second presidency of Donald Trump remains a wildcard for investors, with sanctions on Russian and Iranian supplies in question and talk of tariffs raising concerns about higher gasoline and energy costs for US consumers. 

Prices:

  • WTI for January delivery was little changed, settling at $68.72 a barrel.
  • Brent for January settlement steadied to settle at $72.83 a barrel.

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