Oil Prices Plunge as China Fails to Deliver New Stimulus

Oil plunged as China’s top economic planner ended a highly anticipated briefing on Tuesday without new stimulus measures, sparking a risk-off mood across markets.

Global benchmark Brent crude and US benchmark West Texas Intermediate both lost 4.6%, snapping five-session rallies. China’s National Development and Reform Commission said it’s confident the country will reach its economic targets this year, but the lack of new spending disappointed investors.

“The disappointment — for traders expecting to see new fiscal spending — is what has tamped down on most commodity prices today.” said Thierry Wizman, global foreign exchange and rates strategist at Macquarie.

Still, the oil market remains susceptible to a flare-up in the Middle East. Traders are watching for Israel’s retaliation against Iran following a missile attack last week, which raised concerns of an all-out war. Crude pared some of its earlier losses midday after NBC reported that Israel is still considering striking Iran’s energy facilities, among a number of options.

Iron ore and base metals slumped following the NDRC’s comments, and Hong Kong shares had their worst day since 2008, falling almost 10%. Chinese officials said that they would speed up spending while largely reiterating plans to boost investment.

Oil demand from China, the world’s top crude importer, has been a major cause for concern among investors, and prices slumped in the third quarter largely due to those worries.

With crude rallying more than $7 a barrel since Iran first launched missiles at Israel, some investors are also likely booking profits as markets await new developments, traders said.

“After the recent massive rally, it wouldn’t be surprising to see some profit-taking,” said Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth Group. “Geopolitical premiums tend to fade as fewer headlines emerge, even when underlying risks remain present.”

Oil Prices:

• WTI for November delivery declined 4.6% to settle at $73.57 a barrel.
• Brent for December settlement dropped 4.6% to $77.18 a barrel.

Israel, meanwhile, escalated fighting against Iran-backed groups, keeping the market on edge. On Tuesday, the Israel Defense Forces said a fourth army division is being deployed into Lebanon a week after the start of a ground operation against Hezbollah, and that about 135 projectiles were fired by the Iran-backed militia into Israel.

The Middle East accounts for a third of global crude supply, and President Joe Biden has sought to discourage Israel from attacking Tehran’s oil fields. Israel’s defense minister is set to travel to Washington as the country weighs how to respond to Iran’s attack.

A gauge of implied volatility for Brent remains near the highest in a year. There’s been a deluge of call options — which profits buyers when futures gain — and prices have also closed above some key long-term moving averages.

“In the short term, the risk is for higher prices,” Pierre Andurand, founder of Andurand Capital Management, said in a Bloomberg Television interview. While speculative net bets on rising Brent prices are near record lows, “we have lots of supply risks potentially in Iran,” he added.