Oil Prices Decline for Third Trading Day

(Bloomberg) -- Oil fell for a third straight session as the dollar rose and investors awaited further signals from the OPEC+ alliance on its production policy after a dispute upended talks.

Futures slipped 1.6% in New York on Wednesday. The U.S. dollar rose to a three-month high before paring gains. A higher dollar reduces the appeal of commodities priced in the currency. Investors are assessing an ongoing crisis within the producer alliance that’s threatening a global supply deficit.

“The jury is still out about what the disarray within OPEC+ will amount to,” said John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital LLC.

Oil prices have soared nearly 50% so far this year with consumption returning and the previous OPEC+ production deal keeping a lid on output. But investors remain uncertain about both the future of the alliance’s supply agreement as well as the demand recovery with the delta variant continuing to plague nations.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. is among banks that anticipate a deal will be found. OPEC+ is expected to eventually agree in the coming weeks to increase production by 400,000 barrels a day each month for the rest of 2021, it said in a note.

“People are just wildly uncertain” what the OPEC+ stalemate means for the future of output, said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda Corp. “August is in question and the demand warrants more production.”

Prices:

• West Texas Intermediate crude for August delivery fell $1.17 to settle at $72.20 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
• Brent for September settlement slipped $1.10 to end the session at $73.43 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange.

Meanwhile, U.S. shale executives are locking in prices for the oil they plan to produce next year and protecting themselves against a potential market slump, people familiar with the trades said.

U.S. crude production next year is forecast at 11.85 million barrels a day, the Energy Information Administration said in its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook on Wednesday. That’s up from a previous forecast of 11.79 million barrels a day.

Saudi Aramco increased the official selling price for Arab Light by 80 cents a barrel to $2.70 above the regional benchmark for Asia. That’s the biggest month-on-month gain since January, and suggests the oil giant won’t boost supply next month.

--With assistance from Grant Smith and Saket Sundria.

© 2021 Bloomberg L.P.