Oil Marches Toward $75 as Market Tightens

Oil Marches Toward $75 as Market Tightens
Oil extended a powerful rally, with global benchmark Brent closing in on $75 a barrel.

(Bloomberg) -- Oil extended a powerful rally, with global benchmark Brent closing in on $75 a barrel, after industry data pointed to a substantial draw in U.S. crude stockpiles and top traders predicted further gains in prices.

Brent advanced 0.7%, while West Texas Intermediate climbed to the highest level since October 2018. The industry-funded American Petroleum Institute reported U.S. crude inventories fell 8.54 million barrels last week. That would be the largest drop since January if the figures are confirmed by government data later Wednesday. Still, inventories of gasoline and distillates expanded.

Oil’s rally has been reinvigorated this month as leading economies continue to reopen, aided by coronavirus vaccine programs. That’s boosting worldwide energy demand just as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies maintain a cautious approach to boosting supply. Executives from both Glencore Plc and Vitol Group said this week they see further gains in oil.

“It has been a direct path up for oil for a month now, fueled by optimism over rising consumption as global vaccination continues in earnest,” said Howie Lee, an economist at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. “We see the market in supply deficit for the rest of 2021, and may peak at $80 before year-end,” he added, with the key downside risk being the delta variant of the Covid-19 virus.

Prices:

  • Brent for August settlement added 0.7% to $74.49 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange at 7:15 a.m. in London.
  • WTI for July delivery gained 0.6% to $72.55 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
    • Earlier, prices rose to $72.83, the highest since October 2018.

In the U.S. -- where shale producers have refrained from substantial increases in output this year even as prices march higher -- anti-virus measures are being steadily withdrawn. On Tuesday, California fully reopened its economy, the world’s fifth-largest, while New York lifted its remaining restrictions.

The market’s pricing structure reflects the overall bullish tone, with near-dated prices above those further out. Brent’s prompt timespread was 73 cents a barrel in backwardation, up from 47 cents a week ago. The upcoming December contract was $5.06 more costly than the price for the same month in 2022.

Crude’s latest upswing has come ahead of a potentially pivotal Federal Reserve policy announcement later Wednesday. While the U.S. central bank is not expected to alter interest rates, it could start preliminary discussions about when and how to scale back bond purchases. Any moves on that front could affect the value of the dollar and demand for commodities, including oil.

--With assistance from Sharon Cho.

© 2021 Bloomberg L.P.



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