Oil Keeps Falling on Growth Fear

Oil Keeps Falling on Growth Fear
Oil fell toward the lowest level in almost 2 weeks as global growth concerns continued to damp the demand outlook.

(Bloomberg) -- Oil fell toward the lowest level in almost two weeks as global growth concerns continued to damp the demand outlook, with investors hoping for positive news from high-level U.S.-China trade talks this week.

Futures dropped as much as 1.6 percent in New York, following a 4.6 percent decline last week that was the biggest this year. U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin are heading to Beijing for discussions before a March 1 deadline set by the U.S. to more than double tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods. Hedge funds plowed back into bearish bets on Brent crude in the week through Feb. 5.

West Texas Intermediate oil has reversed course after the best January on record as a lack of progress on the trade war and growth warnings from Europe, Asia and elsewhere depressed the demand outlook. In more bearish news, American drillers added seven working oil rigs last week, bolstering concern that record U.S. production will undermine efforts by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies to curb a global glut.

“We’ll see oil trading in a range between $50 to $55 a barrel in the short term as uncertainties linger over the U.S.-China trade negotiations, as well as over wider economic growth,” said Vincent Hwang, a commodities analyst at NH Investment & Securities Co. in Seoul. Crude is likely to recover to near $60 a barrel in the longer term once the macroeconomic concerns ease, he said.

West Texas Intermediate oil for March delivery dropped 60 cents to $52.12 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 7:53 a.m. in London after falling as much as 82 cents earlier. The contract closed 8 cents higher at $52.72 on Friday.

Brent for April settlement lost 30 cents to $61.80 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The contract climbed 47 cents to $62.10 on Friday. The global benchmark crude was at a $9.29 premium to WTI for the same month, the highest in more than seven weeks.

Investors are hoping that the world’s two biggest economies can get their trade talks back on track after U.S. President Donald Trump said last week that he’s unlikely to meet with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, before the end of the 90-day truce on March 1. Fears are intensifying a deal won’t be reached, which could spur a tit-for-tat escalation that would make an already shaky global growth outlook even worse.

Short-sellers boosted wagers by 28 percent, the most since October, that Brent crude prices would fall, according to data released Friday by ICE Futures Europe Exchange. Net-longs -- the difference between bets on a Brent increase and wagers on a decline -- nudged up by less than 1 percent.

A slew of reports due this week may provide fresh direction for oil markets. The Energy Information Administration and OPEC will publish data including their market outlooks on Tuesday. The Paris-based International Energy Agency and BP Plc will also put out reports containing their demand forecasts on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively.

--With assistance from James Thornhill and Sharon Cho.To contact the reporter on this story: Heesu Lee in Seoul at hlee425@bloomberg.net To contact the editors responsible for this story: Pratish Narayanan at pnarayanan9@bloomberg.net Andrew Janes, Ovais Subhani


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