Oil Jumps as Iran Plans Retaliation

Oil Jumps as Iran Plans Retaliation
Oil prices surged as reports of Iran planning a retaliatory strike on Israel reignited fears of supply disruptions in the Middle East.
Image by Oleksii Liskonih via iStock

Oil surged for a second day as a report that Iran may be planning a new attack on Israel put traders back on alert for supply disruptions from the Middle East.

West Texas Intermediate spiked above $70 a barrel in late trading after Axios reported, citing two unidentified Israeli sources, that Iran is preparing a major retaliatory strike on Israel through the militias it backs in Iraq. Global benchmark Brent jumped above $74 a barrel. WTI had earlier settled 1% higher at around $69.

Just days after Israel’s military-focused strike against Iran eased concerns that the OPEC member’s energy infrastructure could be a target, crude’s risk premium tied to the Middle East conflict is roaring back. While Axios reported that Iran’s plan to use Iraq-based militias may be an attempt to avoid another Israeli attack on its own territory, the mere mention of a second major OPEC producer potentially becoming involved in the conflict was enough to jolt crude prices.

“This is like a balloon that gets inflated and deflated — we are now blowing a little air back into the geopolitical risk premium,” said Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth Group.


Oil Prices:

  • WTI for December delivery climbed 1% to settle at $69.26 a barrel in New York.
  • Brent for December settlement rose 0.8% to settle at $73.16 a barrel.
    •   The more active January contract advanced 0.9% to settle at $72.81.


Earlier, an airstrike on what Israel described as a local Hezbollah fuel depot on Wednesday set off a massive blast, killing at least 19 people, and a rocket fired from Lebanon struck an agricultural area in northern Israel, killing five, according to a news report.

Prices had earlier pared gains after another EIA report showed that US crude output increased 1.5% in August to a record 13.4 million barrels per day, a reminder of rising non-OPEC supply. US inventories of crude, gasoline and distillates — a category that includes diesel — all declined last week, according to the US Energy Information Administration.

Top hedge fund manager Pierre Andurand has returned to the oil market with long positions in futures and options, according to a letter to investors seen by Bloomberg. He expects higher oil prices as a result of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, the letter said.

WTI’s prompt spread — the difference between its two nearest contracts — has widened to 49 cents in backwardation, which signals tighter supply-demand balances in the short term. But several major events — including next week’s US elections and a looming OPEC+ decision on output plans for December — are keeping traders on edge about the market’s direction.

 


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