USA Oil Output Expected to Average 14MM Bpd in 2027

In its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released back in May, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected that U.S. crude oil production, including lease condensate, will average 14.10 million barrels per day in 2027.

U.S. crude oil output has never averaged 14 million barrels per day or above annually, or even monthly, according to EIA figures.

A data page on the EIA site showing annual U.S. field production of crude oil - which was last updated on May 29 and includes data from 1859 to 2025 - showed that the highest average annual U.S. field production of crude oil figure was seen in 2025, at 13.586 million barrels per day. Prior to this, annual U.S. field production of crude oil had only averaged 13 million barrels per day or more in one other year - 2024, at 13.235 million barrels per day - the data revealed.

A data page on the EIA website displaying monthly U.S. field production of crude oil - which was also last updated on May 29 and includes data from January 1920 to March 2026 - showed that the highest average monthly U.S. field production of crude oil figure was seen in October 2025, at 13.864 million barrels per day.

The second highest figure was seen in September 2025, at 13.828 million barrels per day, and the third highest figure came in August 2025, at 13.810 million barrels per day. Monthly U.S. field production of crude oil has averaged 13.8 million barrels per day or more only on those three occasions, according to the data page.

Monthly U.S. field output has averaged 13 million barrels per day or more on 30 occasions, the data page showed. Three of these were seen in 2026, 12 were seen in 2025, 11 came in 2024, and four came in 2023, the data page highlighted.

Production Breakdown

According to its May STEO, the EIA sees Lower 48 states, excluding the Gulf of America, contributing 11.75 million barrels per day to the total projected figure of 14.10 million barrels per day for U.S. crude oil production in 2027. 

The Federal Gulf of America is expected to contribute 1.85 million barrels per day and Alaska is expected to contribute 0.50 million barrels per day, the STEO showed.

Total U.S. crude oil production, including lease condensate, is forecast to average 13.65 million barrels per day in 2026 in the EIA’s May STEO. Lower 48 states, excluding the Gulf of America, make up 11.23 million barrels per day of that total projected figure, the Federal Gulf of America contributes 1.97 million barrels per day, and Alaska makes up 0.45 million barrels per day, the STEO projected.

The EIA’s May STEO showed that total U.S. crude oil production averaged 13.59 million barrels per day in 2025. Lower 48 states, excluding the Gulf of America, made up 11.27 million barrels per day of that total figure, the Federal Gulf of America made up 1.90 million barrels per day, and Alaska made up 0.42 million barrels per day, the STEO highlighted.

A quarterly breakdown included in the EIA’s latest STEO projected that total U.S. crude oil output, including lease condensate, will average 13.74 million barrels per day in the second quarter of this year, 13.61 million barrels per day in the third quarter, 13.72 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, 13.94 million barrels per day in the first quarter of next year, 14.13 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 14.11 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and 14.21 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter.

“Higher crude oil prices support more crude oil production,” the EIA said in its latest STEO.

The EIA added in its STEO, however, that “it takes several months for higher oil prices to lead to supply growth for price responsive producers like shale oil production in the United States”.

To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com