USA EIA Reveals Latest USA Diesel Price Forecast for 2026

In its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released on May 12, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected that the U.S. on-highway diesel fuel price will average $4.76 per gallon in 2026.

This marks a slight decrease from the 2026 U.S. on-highway diesel fuel price forecast in the EIA’s previous STEO, which was released in April. In that STEO, the EIA saw the fuel averaging $4.80 per gallon this year.

A quarterly breakdown included in the EIA’s May STEO projected that the on-highway diesel fuel price will average $5.36 per gallon in the second quarter of this year, $4.94 per gallon in the third quarter, and $4.73 per gallon in the fourth quarter. In its previous STEO, the EIA projected that the fuel would average $5.61 per gallon in the second quarter of this year, $5.00 per gallon in the third quarter, and $4.59 per gallon in the fourth quarter.

Both STEOs showed that the fuel averaged $4.06 per gallon in the first quarter of this year and $3.66 per gallon overall in 2025.

According to the AAA Fuel Prices website, the average U.S. diesel price is $5.656 per gallon, as of May 21. Yesterday’s average was $5.652 per gallon, the week ago average was $5.667 per gallon, the month ago average was $5.511 per gallon, and the year ago average was $3.554 per gallon, the site showed.

The highest recorded average price of diesel in the U.S. was seen on June 19, 2022, at $5.816 per gallon, the site outlined.

The EIA’s latest diesel fuel update, which was released on May 19, showed a recent declining price trend for U.S. on-highway diesel fuel. According to this update, the fuel price averaged $5.640 per gallon on May 4, $5.639 per gallon on May 11, and $5.596 per gallon on May 18.

Although the EIA’s diesel fuel update outlined a recent price drop, it still highlighted that the May 18 price was $1.807 higher than the price two years ago, and $2.060 higher than the year ago price.

Of the five Petroleum Administration for Defense District (PADD) regions highlighted in the EIA’s latest fuel update, the West Coast was shown to have the highest on-highway diesel fuel price as of May 18, at $6.524 per gallon. The Gulf Coast was shown in the update to have the lowest on-highway diesel fuel price as of May 18, at $5.122 per gallon.

A glossary section of the EIA site notes that the 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia are divided into five districts, with PADD 1 further split into three subdistricts. PADDs 6 and 7 encompass U.S. territories, the site adds.

In a blog posted on its website on Monday, GasBuddy noted that the national average price of diesel fell 0.5 cents in the last week and outlined that it stood at $5.618 per gallon.

According to this blog, the most common U.S. diesel price stood at $4.99 per gallon, “unchanged from last week”. This was followed by $4.89 per gallon, $4.79 per gallon, $4.85 per gallon, and $4.95 per gallon, the blog revealed.

The median U.S. diesel price stood at $5.49 per gallon, the blog highlighted, noting that was also “unchanged from last week and about 13 cents lower than the national average”.

Diesel prices at the top 10 percent of stations in the country averaged $6.45 per gallon and the bottom 10 percent averaged $4.78 per gallon, the blog noted, adding that the states with the lowest average diesel prices comprised Texas, at $4.96 per gallon, Louisiana, at $5.02 per gallon, and Mississippi, at $5.04 per gallon.

The states with the highest average diesel prices were California, at $7.40 per gallon, Hawaii, at $7.21 per gallon, and Washington, at $6.78 per gallon, according to the blog, which outlined that the states that saw the biggest weekly changes were Colorado, which experienced a 25.4 cent increase, Michigan, which saw a 17.6 cent increase, and Ohio, which saw a 16.1 cent increase.

In its latest fuel update, which pegged the diesel retail price at $3.72 per gallon in February, the EIA outlined that 41 percent of that total went towards crude oil costs, 23 percent went towards refining costs, 21 percent went toward distribution and marketing costs, and 16 percent went towards taxes.

“With global oil inventories continuing to trend toward historically tight levels, markets remain extremely sensitive to geopolitical developments and potential supply disruptions,” Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, said in the company’s blog.

“As a result, gasoline and diesel prices are likely to remain volatile, and with Memorial Day approaching, any sustained increase in oil prices could begin pushing retail fuel prices higher again in the weeks ahead,” he warned.

In a maternal healthcare event hosted in the White House Oval Office on May 12, which was streamed live on the White House YouTube page, U.S. President Donald Trump said, “as soon as this is over with Iran … you’re going to see gasoline and oil drop like a rock”. 

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