USA EIA Reveals Latest Henry Hub Natural Gas Price Forecasts

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) revealed its latest Henry Hub natural gas spot price forecasts in its January short term energy outlook (STEO), which was published on January 14 and completed its forecast on January 9.
According to its January STEO, the EIA expects the Henry Hub spot price to average $3.14 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2025 and $3.97 per MMBtu in 2026. The EIA’s previous STEO, which was released in December, projected that the Henry Hub spot price would average $2.95 per MMBtu in 2025. That STEO did not include a Henry Hub spot price forecast for 2026.
The EIA’s latest STEO sees the Henry Hub spot price averaging $3.21 per MMBtu in the first quarter of 2025, $2.59 per MMBtu in the second quarter, $3.18 per MMBtu in the third quarter, $3.59 per MMBtu in the fourth quarter, $4.03 per MMBtu in the first quarter of 2026, $3.63 per MMBtu in the second quarter, $4.06 per MMBtu in the third quarter, and $4.17 per MMBtu in the fourth quarter of next year.
In its December STEO, the EIA projected that the Henry Hub spot price would average $2.95 per MMBtu in the first quarter of 2025, $2.44 per MMBtu in the second quarter, $3.02 per MMBtu in the third quarter, and $3.40 per MMBtu in the fourth quarter.
Both STEOs put the 2024 Henry Hub spot price average at $2.19 per MMBtu.
“In our forecast, the annual U.S. benchmark Henry Hub spot price averages $3.10 per MMBtu in 2025 and rises to almost $4.00 per MMBtu in 2026,” the EIA noted in its January STEO.
“Our expectation that natural gas inventories remain at or below previous five-year averages during the forecast period puts upward pressure on natural gas prices,” it added.
“The monthly Henry Hub spot price in our forecast remains between $2.50 per MMBtu and $3.90 per MMBtu in 2025 and between $3.50 per MMBtu and $4.40 per MMBtu in 2026 as LNG exports increase,” it continued.
“Although we expect the Henry Hub price to rise from their all-time lows in 2024 over the forecast period, the potential exists for prices to increase by less than we forecast, particularly if the ramp-up of new LNG production is slower than expected or the start-up of the Golden Pass facility is delayed,” the EIA went on to state.
In its January STEO, the EIA also warned that “weather continues to present a significant risk” to its Henry Hub price forecast, “particularly in the winter months”.
The EIA noted in its latest STEO that, over the next two years, it expects that natural gas demand in the U.S. will generally grow by more than natural gas supply.
“In 2025, we forecast supply of natural gas, including both production and imports, will rise by 1.4 billion cubic feet per day in 2025, while demand for natural gas, including domestic consumption and exports, rises by 3.2 billion cubic feet per day,” it added.
“Exports are the leading source of natural gas demand growth in our forecast,” it continued.
In its December STEO, the EIA noted that U.S. natural gas prices fell for the second month in a row in November “as mild autumn weather persisted in the first half of the month and the Lower 48 states entered the winter heating season with six percent more working natural gas in storage than the previous five-year (2019–2023) average”.
The EIA pointed out in that STEO that the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price averaged just over $2 per MMBtu in November. It highlighted that this was “down slightly from $2.20 per MMBtu in October”.
“With cold late November and early December weather over much of the eastern part of the country, spot prices rose,” the EIA said in that STEO.
“We forecast the Henry Hub spot price will average $3.00 per MMBtu for the rest of the winter heating season, which ends in March, and just under $3.00 per MMBtu in 2025,” it added in its December STEO.
To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
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