USA EIA Forecasts Gasoline Price Drop in 2025 and 2026

In its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released on February 11, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected that the U.S. regular gasoline price will drop this year and next year.

That STEO forecast that the regular gasoline price will average $3.21 per gallon in 2025 and $3.14 per gallon in 2026. The STEO highlighted that the 2024 U.S. regular gasoline price averaged $3.31 per gallon.

In its previous STEO, which was released in January, the EIA projected that the U.S. regular gasoline price would average $3.20 per gallon this year and $3.02 per gallon next year.

The EIA forecast in its latest STEO that the regular gasoline price will come in at $3.10 per gallon in the first quarter of 2025, $3.26 per gallon in the second quarter, $3.35 per gallon in the third quarter, $3.11 per gallon in the fourth quarter, $3.05 per gallon in the first quarter of 2026, $3.24 per gallon across the second and third quarters, and $3.00 per gallon in the fourth quarter.

In its previous January STEO, the EIA saw the regular gasoline price averaging $3.06 per gallon in the first quarter of 2025, $3.31 per gallon in the second quarter, $3.33 per gallon in the third quarter, $3.06 per gallon in the fourth quarter, $2.98 per gallon in the first quarter of 2026, $3.14 per gallon in the second quarter, $3.08 per gallon in the third quarter, and $2.85 per gallon in the fourth quarter.

“Motor gasoline is the only one of the three primary transportation fuels that we do not forecast to surpass 2019 volumes in the United States in the next two years,” the EIA said in its February STEO.

“Fuel efficiency gains in the vehicle fleet have generally outpaced growth in driving since 2019, allowing drivers to travel more miles using less gasoline,” it added.

“We forecast U.S. motor gasoline consumption to remain about flat in 2025 as driving activity, measured by vehicle miles traveled, keeps pace with fuel efficiency gains. We forecast gasoline consumption to decrease slightly in 2026, when we assume slower growth in driving activity as employment growth slows,” it continued.

“Compared with 2019, we forecast four percent less U.S. motor gasoline consumption in 2025 and five percent less in 2026, despite more miles driven in both years,” the EIA went on to state.

The EIA’s latest gasoline fuel update, which was released on February 18, showed that the U.S. regular gasoline price averaged $3.082 per gallon on February 3, $3.128 per gallon on February 10, and $3.148 per gallon on February 17. The February 17 price was down $0.121 compared to the year ago price, the fuel update outlined.

Of the five Petroleum Administration for Defense District (PADD) regions highlighted in the EIA’s latest fuel update, the West Coast was shown to have the highest regular gasoline price as of February 17, at $4.187 per gallon. The Gulf Coast was shown to have the lowest regular gasoline price as of February 17, at $2.740 per gallon.

A glossary section of the EIA site notes that the 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia are divided into five districts, with PADD 1 further split into three subdistricts. PADDs 6 and 7 encompass U.S. territories, the site adds.

The EIA’s fuel update, which pegged the price of regular gasoline at $3.02 per gallon in December 2024, showed that 56 percent of this total went towards crude oil costs, 20 percent went towards distribution and marketing costs, 17 percent went towards taxes, and eight percent went towards refining costs.

According to the AAA Fuel Prices website, the average U.S. regular gasoline price is $3.165 per gallon, as of February 20. Yesterday’s average was $3.164 per gallon, the week ago average was $3.160 per gallon, the month ago average was $3.125 per gallon, and the year ago average was $3.276 per gallon, the site showed.

The highest recorded average regular gasoline price was seen on June 14, 2022, at $5.016 per gallon, the AAA site highlighted.

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