USA EIA Cuts Brent Oil Price Forecast for 2025 and 2026

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) cut its Brent spot price forecast for 2025 and 2026 in its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released on April 10.

According to its April STEO, the EIA now sees the Brent spot price averaging $67.87 per barrel in 2025 and $61.48 per barrel in 2026. In its previous STEO, which was released in March, the EIA projected that the Brent spot price would average $74.22 per barrel this year and $68.47 per barrel next year.

In its latest STEO, the EIA forecast that the Brent spot price will come in at $66.33 per barrel in the second quarter of 2025, $65.67 per barrel in the third quarter, $64 per barrel in the fourth quarter, $63 per barrel in the first quarter of next year, $62 per barrel in the second quarter, $61 per barrel in the third quarter, and $60 per barrel in the fourth quarter.

In its March STEO, the EIA projected that the Brent spot price would average $74 per barrel in the second quarter of this year, $75 per barrel in the third quarter, $73.02 per barrel in the fourth quarter, $71 per barrel in the first quarter of 2026, $69 per barrel in the second quarter, $68 per barrel in the third quarter, and $66 per barrel in the fourth quarter of next year.

“Crude oil prices fell sharply in the first week of April as oil market participants assessed announcements that the United States would impose new tariffs and OPEC+ would accelerate production increases,” the EIA said in its latest STEO.

“These announcements increase the likelihood that global oil inventories will rise in the coming month and have the potential to put further downward pressure on oil prices,” the EIA added.

“As a result, we have reduced our Brent crude oil spot price forecast by $6 per barrel in 2025 and by $7 per barrel in 2026 compared with our March STEO,” it highlighted.

In its April STEO, the EIA said it anticipates that global oil inventories will start to increase in the second quarter of 2025.

“Inventories begin building sooner than previously expected, mostly because we raised our expectation of OPEC+ production in the coming quarters and lowered our expectation of oil demand growth,” it said in the outlook.

“We expect global oil inventories will increase by 0.6 million barrels per day in 2Q25 and by 0.7 million barrels per day on average in the second half of 2025, and inventories will continue to accumulate at that pace in 2026,” it added.

“Given our expectation of significant increases in oil inventories beginning in 2H25, we forecast that the Brent crude oil price will generally decline throughout the forecast period,” it continued.

“As global oil inventories rise, we expect the Brent crude oil price will fall from an average of $76 per barrel in 1Q25 to an average of $64 per barrel by 4Q25 and will average $61 per barrel overall next year,” it went on to state.

In its April STEO, the EIA stated that significant uncertainty remains in its price forecast.

“The effect that new or additional tariffs will have on global economic activity and associated oil demand is still highly uncertain and could weigh heavily on oil prices going forward,” it warned.

The EIA highlighted in its latest STEO that it completed modeling and analysis for its April report on April 7, highlighting that more recent policy changes are not incorporated.

Rigzone has contacted the White House and OPEC for comment on the EIA’s latest STEO. At the time of writing, neither have responded to Rigzone.

A Standard Chartered Bank report sent to Rigzone by Standard Chartered Bank Commodities Research Head Paul Horsnell on April 8 showed that Standard Chartered expects the ICE Brent nearby future crude oil price to average $77 per barrel in 2025 and $85 per barrel in 2026.

Standard Chartered Bank sees the commodity averaging $73 per barrel in the second quarter of this year, $77 per barrel in the third quarter, and $82 per barrel in the fourth quarter, according to the report.

A BMI report sent to Rigzone by the Fitch Group on Monday morning showed that BMI expects the Brent crude price to average $68 per barrel in 2025 and $71 per barrel in 2026.

To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com