USA EIA Bumps Up Oil Price Forecast
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has increased its Brent spot average price forecasts for 2021 and 2022, its October short term energy outlook (STEO) has revealed.
The EIA now sees Brent spot prices averaging $71.38 per barrel in 2021 and $71.91 per barrel in 2022. This marks a notable rise from the EIA’s September STEO, which forecasted average Brent spot prices of $68.61 per barrel in 2021 and $66.04 per barrel in 2022.
In its latest STEO, the EIA highlighted that Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $74 per barrel in September, which it noted was up $4 per barrel from August and up $34 per barrel from September last year. The organization also drew attention to the fact that Brent spot prices have risen from their September average to more than $80 per barrel in early October.
“Oil prices have increased over the past year as result of steady draws on global oil inventories, which averaged 1.9 million barrels per day during the first three quarters of 2021,” the EIA stated in its October STEO.
“In addition to sustained inventory draws, prices increased after the October 4 announcement by OPEC+ that the group would keep current production targets unchanged,” the EIA added in its latest STEO report.
In its October STEO, the EIA said it expects Brent prices will remain near current levels for the remainder of 2021, averaging $81 per barrel during the fourth quarter of 2021, which it highlighted is $10 per barrel higher than its previous forecast.
“The higher forecast reflects our expectation that global oil inventories will fall at a faster rate than we had previously expected owing largely to lower global oil supply in late 2021 across a range of producers,” the EIA said.
“In 2022, we expect that growth in production from OPEC+, U.S. tight oil and other non-OPEC countries will outpace slowing growth in global oil consumption and contribute to Brent prices declining from current levels to an annual average of $72 per barrel,” the organization added.
The EIA’s October STEO remains subject to heightened levels of uncertainty related to the ongoing recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic, the organization noted, adding that the STEO assumes U.S. GDP will grow by 5.7 percent in 2021 and by 4.5 percent in 2022.
As of October 13, 3.58pm CEST, there have been 44.1 million confirmed Covid-19 cases in the U.S., with 710,757 deaths, according to the latest information from the World Health Organization (WHO). As of October 8, a total of 407,615,184 vaccine doses have been administered in the country, the latest WHO data shows.
To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
What do you think? We’d love to hear from you, join the conversation on the
Rigzone Energy Network.
The Rigzone Energy Network is a new social experience created for you and all energy professionals to Speak Up about our industry, share knowledge, connect with peers and industry insiders and engage in a professional community that will empower your career in energy.
- ExxonMobil Racks Up Discoveries in Guyana Block Eyed by Chevron
- Oil Market Sentiment Has Improved Significantly
- EU, US Eye Collaboration on Nuclear Materials
- USA Driving Activity to Increase to All-Time Highs
- EU Electricity Export to Ukraine Up 94 Percent in Two Years
- China Coal Output Falls for First Time since Government Ordered More
- TC Energy to Sell Prince Rupert Gas Pipeline Project to First Nation
- BP Pulse Buys One of Europe's Largest Truck Stops
- UK CCUS Plans Outdated: Think Tank
- I Squared Eyes Full Ownership of Europe Gas Storage Firm
- Norway Regulator Blasts Proposal to Halt New Oil and Gas Permits
- Chinese Mega Company Makes Major Oilfield Discovery
- EIA Drops 2024 Henry Hub Gas Price Forecast
- EIA and Standard Chartered Offer Up Latest Oil Price Predictions
- Red Sea Region Sees Another Watershed Incident
- Chevron Oil Project in Kazakhstan to Cost $48.5B
- OPEC Voices Encouragement after IEA Affirms Support for Oil Security
- Biden Govt Bares Strategy for Freight Charging, Hydrogen Fueling Infra
- Ukraine Hits Third Russian Refinery In Escalating Drone Strikes
- Rystad Looks at the Buzz Around White Hydrogen
- VIDEO: Missile Attack Kills Crew Transiting Gulf of Aden
- Norway Regulator Blasts Proposal to Halt New Oil and Gas Permits
- Chinese Mega Company Makes Major Oilfield Discovery
- What Is the Biggest Risk to Offshore Oil and Gas Personnel in 2024?
- Is Peak Oil Demand Close?
- Vessel Sinks in Red Sea After Missile Strike
- JP Morgan, Standard Chartered Reveal Latest Oil Price Forecasts
- Exxon Rights in Stabroek Do Not Apply to Hess Merger with Chevron: Hess
- Rystad Forecasts Net Production of Top Permian Producers in 2024
- Analysts Reveal Latest Oil Price Outlook Following OPEC+ Cut Extension