US Will Likely Grant Fewer Waivers in May

US Will Likely Grant Fewer Waivers in May
The United States will likely grant fewer waivers to buyers of Iranian oil when they're up for renewal in May, according to IHS Markit.

The United States will likely grant fewer waivers to buyers of Iranian oil when they’re up for renewal in May.

That’s according to Victor Shum, vice president of energy consulting at IHS Markit, who expressed the view in a television interview with CNBC on Thursday.

“The waivers granted by the U.S. Trump administration to buyers of Iranian oil, they are going to be up for renewal and likely, in May, when they are up for renewal, the U.S. will grant fewer waivers and so Iranian crude production will be cut likely in the second quarter, and that is a bullish factor,” Shum told CNBC in the interview.

Shum also stated in the interview that Saudi Arabia “have already started cutting production and cutting exports and that is a bullish factor”. U.S. oil production growth “is going to remain a bearish factor throughout 2019,” the IHS Markit representative told CNBC.

U.S. crude oil production will average 12.1 million barrels per day (MMbpd) this year, according to the EIA’s latest short-term energy outlook, which estimates that U.S. crude oil production averaged 10.9 MMbpd in 2018.

The EIA forecasts West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent oil prices will average $54 and $61 per barrel, respectively, in 2019. Last week, analysts at Fitch Solutions Macro Research (FSMR) forecasted that the price of WTI and Brent will average $69 and $75 per barrel, respectively, this year. 

Shum has more than 30 years of commercial and management experience in the consulting and oil industries, according to IHS Markit’s website, which states that he has led numerous client engagements for Fortune 500 companies, national oil companies and government agencies in the energy sector in Asia.

IHS Markit describes itself as “the leading source of information and insight in critical areas that shape today's business landscape”.


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