U.S. Energy-Related CO2 Emissions To Rise In 2022, 2023

U.S. Energy-Related CO2 Emissions To Rise In 2022, 2023
The EIA forecasts that U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide emissions will increase in both 2022 and 2023 but remain below 2019 levels.

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook forecasts that U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide emissions will increase in both 2022 and 2023 but remain below 2019 levels.

The EIA said that U.S. energy-related CO2 emissions decreased by 11 percent in 2020 as energy use declined during the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.

As the U.S. economy began to return to pre-COVID activity, CO2 emissions increased by an estimated 6 percent in 2021. The EIA expects increasing economic activity, along with other factors, to result in those emissions increasing by another 2 percent in 2022 and remaining virtually flat in 2023.

The Short-Term Energy Outlook forecasts that, by 2023, U.S. energy-related CO2 emissions will total 4,971 million metric tons (MMmt) – still 3 percent below the 5,144 MMmt of CO2 emissions generated in 2019 and 17 percent below the peak level of 6,016 MMmt in 2007.

U.S. petroleum-related CO2 emissions increased 8 percent in 2021, and it will likely increase by another 5 percent in 2022 and an additional 1 percent in 2023 as travel activity continues to increase.

According to the EIA, the number of vehicle miles traveled in the United States in 2022, which affects motor gasoline and diesel consumption, will return to 2019 levels and air travel will increase by 4 percent over 2019.

The Administration expects U.S. CO2 emissions from natural gas to rise by 1 percent in both 2022 and 2023. Two of the most common uses of natural gas are electricity generation and heating, so both energy prices and weather influence U.S. natural gas consumption.

EIA believes that the electric power sector’s consumption of natural gas will decline in 2022 because of competition from renewable energy sources.

Coal CO2 emissions will fall by 3 percent in 2022 and remain mostly flat in 2023. In the United States, coal is primarily used to generate electricity. As renewable sources have become less expensive, they have displaced coal consumption in the electric power sector and led to several coal-fired power plants retiring.

To contact the author, email bojan.lepic@rigzone.com


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