Up To 6 Major Atlantic Hurricanes Forecasted For 2022

Forecasters at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service, are predicting above average hurricane activity in the Atlantic this year, NOAA’s website has revealed.

NOAA’s outlook for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, which extends from June 1 to November 30, predicts a 65 percent chance of an above-normal season, a 25 percent chance of a near-normal season and a 10 percent chance of a below-normal season. The organization is forecasting a likely range of 14 to 21 named storms, with winds of 39 miles per hour or higher, of which six to 10 could become hurricanes, with winds of 74 mph or higher, including three to six major hurricanes, with winds of 111 mph or higher.

Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook 2022, NOAA

NOAA noted that it provides these ranges with a 70 percent confidence. The organization also highlighted that its outlook is for overall seasonal activity and is not a landfall forecast. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center will update the 2022 Atlantic seasonal outlook in early August, just prior to the historical peak of the season. 

“Early preparation and understanding your risk is key to being hurricane resilient and climate-ready,” U.S. Secretary of Commerce Gina M. Raimondo said in a statement posted on NOAA’s site.

“Throughout the hurricane season, NOAA experts will work around-the-clock to provide early and accurate forecasts and warnings that communities in the path of storms can depend on to stay informed,” Raimondo added in the statement.

NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad said, “as we reflect on another potentially busy hurricane season, past storms - such as Superstorm Sandy, which devastated the New York metro area ten years ago - remind us that the impact of one storm can be felt for years”.

“Since Sandy, NOAA’s forecasting accuracy has continued to improve, allowing us to better predict the impacts of major hurricanes to lives and livelihoods,” Spinrad added.

FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell said, “Hurricane Ida spanned nine states, demonstrating that anyone can be in the direct path of a hurricane and in danger from the remnants of a storm system”.

“It’s important for everyone to understand their risk and take proactive steps to get ready now by visiting Ready.gov and Listo.gov for preparedness tips, and by downloading the FEMA App to make sure you are receiving emergency alerts in real-time,” Criswell added.

Atlantic weather systems have severely affected oil and gas operations in the past. For example, at its peak, Hurricane Ida shut in 95.65 percent of Gulf of Mexico oil production on August 29, 2021, and 94.47 percent of Gulf of Mexico gas production on August 31, 2021, Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) figures show. In October 2020, the BSEE estimated at one point that approximately 84.8 percent of oil production and 57.6 percent of natural gas production in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico had been shut-in as a result of Storm Zeta. Several other storms affected U.S. oil and gas production in 2020, including Hurricane Delta, Hurricane Sally, Hurricane Laura and Tropical Storm Cristobal. 

NOAA is part of the U.S. Department of Commerce. The organization’s mission is to understand and predict changes in climate, weather, ocean, and coasts, to share that knowledge and information with others, and to conserve and manage coastal and marine ecosystems and resources, according to its website.

To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com