Unplanned Supply Outages 'Look Set to Rise', Pose 'Upside Risk' to Prices
Unplanned supply outages look set to rise in July, posing “upside risk” to prices, oil and gas analysts at BMI Research said in a report sent to Rigzone.
“An uptick in unplanned supply outages will test global supplies, adding to more chronic declines in Venezuela and Angola and export and infrastructure bottlenecking in Iran and the US, respectively,” the analysts said in the report.
“The return of barrels by OPEC and Russia will help meet the shortfall, but the market remains at risk of a supply crunch should more production come offline while demand continues its healthy growth,” the analysts added.
Globally, unplanned supply outages have been “comparatively low” in the year to-date, according to BMI analysts, who revealed in the report that, over the first half of the year, average unplanned supply outage came in around 15 percent lower than the 2017 average and more than 30 percent below the three-year historical average.
“In spite of this, crude inventories have been drawn down, supported by strong overall compliance with the OPEC+ production cut deal and rising demand for fuels,” the analysts said in the report.
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