Uncertainty Remains Around EU Nord Stream 1 Flows

Uncertainty Remains Around EU Nord Stream 1 Flows
Is it possible that Europe is starting to see consumers nominate volumes along Nord Stream 1?

Is it possible that Europe is starting to see consumers nominate volumes along Nord Stream 1?

That’s the question Rystad Energy Vice President Emily McClain posed in a new market update from the company, which was sent to Rigzone on Wednesday.

“On the German website, Gascade, volumes were nominated for one day this week, sparking the question of whether flows have begun again,” McClain stated in the update.

“Entry nominations from Gascade on 19 September was for 244 GWh/d (22 MMcmd) or 13 percent of total nameplate capacity, but nominations for 20 September slipped back to zero,” McClain added.

“Even though these are small volumes, this could be a potential game changer. If these nominations translate to actual flows, it will raise the question - why would Russia choose to restart NS1,” McClain continued.

In the update, McClain highlighted that no physical flows were reported on the NS1 operator’s website, Entsog, and revealed that there were no nominations made from Gazprom on the same day. In addition, no nominations were reported in the following days from either Gascade or Gazprom “making it further unclear if gas is flowing”, McClain outlined.

“Gazprom has shown its proclivity for not meeting nominations in recent times, so the pipeline status remains uncertain, and the return of flows is likely more wishful thinking,” McClain said in the update.

“If a 13 percent utilization on the NS1 pipeline occurs, it would essentially rewrite the expectations for this winter,” McClain added.

In a statement on its Twitter page on September 2, Gazprom revealed that gas transmission via the Nord Stream gas pipeline had been fully shut down. Last month, Gazprom revealed on Twitter that gas supplies via the Nord Stream pipeline would be suspended from August 31 to September 2 for maintenance works.

Analysts at Standard Chartered think that taking Nord Stream volumes to zero is probably good for market stability, according to a report from the company sent to Rigzone earlier this month.

In a follow up report, Standard Chartered noted that “Russia is running out of levers to pull in its attempts to destabilize European gas markets”.

To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com


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