Turkey Finds 19Tcf in Black Sea in 2020-21
By the official numbers, Turkey’s latest success with the Amasra-1 well brings Black Sea volumes discovered by Turkey in 2020 and 2021 to 540 billion cubic meters (19 trillion cubic feet), Ashley Sherman, a principal analyst for Europe upstream at Wood Mackenzie, has highlighted.
“It was always likely that Turkey’s Black Sea resource estimates would grow thanks to continued appraisal of the giant Sakarya discovery and new exploration wells by Turkey’s own drillships,” Sherman said in a statement sent to Rigzone on Monday.
“Optimistically, if 100 percent [of the 540 billion cubic meters] were recovered, that’s equivalent to around 12 years of Turkey’s current, overwhelmingly import-dominated, gas demand,” Sherman added.
In the statement, the Wood Mackenzie representative said the strategic focus now needs to shift even more from adding resources to developing volumes already discovered.
“That means consistent progress offshore – with wells and pipelines – and onshore at the gas plant site at Filyos,” Sherman said.
“A 2023 date for first production still looks ambitious, even from the smaller-scale Phase One. Reaping the supply rewards on such an accelerated timeline remains complex and expensive, no matter the political and economic importance,” the Wood Mackenzie representative added.
Sherman noted that Turkey’s Black Sea exploration success has strengthened its negotiating hand with its piped gas import sources – Azerbaijan, Iran, and Russia - giving it more ability to push for lower prices, lower volumes, and greater contract flexibility.
“That will not only be seen in renewal conversations still to come. It’s already true in current talks with as close a partner as Azerbaijan, for a long-term contract that expired in April and is still yet to be renewed,” Sherman said.
On June 4, Turkey’s state run news agency Anadolu Agency reported that the Turkish president announced the discovery of another 135 billion cubic meters (4.7 trillion cubic feet) of natural gas in the Black Sea via the Amasra-1 well.
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