There Were 3 Drivers to Monday's USA Natural Gas Price Pullback

(Update) May 21, 2025, 05:35 AM EST: Article updated with White House statement, additional information.

There were three drivers to Monday’s U.S. natural gas price pullback, Art Hogan, Chief Market Strategist at B. Riley Wealth, told Rigzone in an exclusive interview on Tuesday.

“Weather forecasts maintained mild conditions. The threat of re-escalating tariffs on U.S. trading partners stood as a further demand-side risk, while production remained steady,” Hogan said.

When Rigzone contacted the White House for comment on Hogan’s statement, White House Spokesman Kush Desai told Rigzone, “unleashing America’s God-given bounty of ‘liquid gold’ is a key priority for President Trump”.

“The administration has already secured billions in natural gas exports, and our trade and economic policies are quickly laying the groundwork for billions of dollars in more opportunities for America’s energy industry,” Desai added.

Donald J. Trump issued a raft of energy orders during his first day as the 47th President of the United States. In a statement posted on its website on April 1, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) announced the removal of “additional regulatory barriers standing in the way of unleashing U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports”.

A DOE statement posted on the organization’s site on March 19 announced that U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright had approved an LNG export authorization to the Venture Global CP2 LNG export project proposed for Cameron Parish, Louisiana. That statement noted that the issuance to CP2 marked the fifth LNG-related approval from the DOE since Trump took office, following an export approval to Commonwealth LNG on February 14, an order on rehearing removing barriers for the use of LNG as bunkering fuel announced on February 28, an approval providing the Golden Pass LNG terminal more time to commence exports issued March 5, and an approval granting the Delfin LNG project additional time to commence exports issued on March 10.

In a statement posted on its site on March 6, Venture Global announced plans for a brownfield expansion at its Plaquemines LNG facility south of New Orleans, Louisiana. The company said in that statement that the planned Plaquemines expansion will consist of 24 trains and would represent an approximately $18 billion additional investment in the State of Louisiana.

Shoulder Season Is on Full Display

In a separate exclusive interview on Tuesday, Phil Flynn, a senior market analyst at the PRICE Futures Group, said “shoulder season is on full display, with producers coming out of maintenance raising output while demand is weak”.

Flynn also told Rigzone that the weather is in a “goldilocks” state, “not too hot and not too cold”.

In an EBW Analytics Group report sent to Rigzone by the EBW team on Tuesday, Eli Rubin, an analyst at the company, said the June natural gas contract “shed another 22.1¢ yesterday [Monday], testing support as low as $3.098, as indelibly weak shoulder season fundamentals continue to pummel the market”.

“The front-month has now lost 68.2¢ in six sessions, and technicals remain bearish,” Rubin warned.

In the report, Rubin went on to state that gas production at a monthly high over the weekend appears to have spooked longs, although the analyst added that gains were small in absolute terms. Rubin also noted in the report that “early-season heating demand for Weeks 2 and 3 may total 10 cooling degree days below 30-year norms”.

Rubin said in the report that near-term pricing is likely to remain dominated by trader positioning ahead of the Memorial Day holiday and June contract options expiration and final settlement next week.

“Over the next 30-45 days, however, confidence is increasing for a rebound if and when summer heat shows up (potentially in mid-to-late June), as a lower injection-season storage trajectory creates fundamental headroom for NYMEX futures,” Rubin went on to state.

June Natural Gas Extending Lower

In an EBW Analytics Group report sent to Rigzone by the EBW team on Monday, Rubin highlighted that the June natural gas contract was extending lower that morning “as weak Henry Hub spot prices exert a gravitational pull, technicals indicate further weakness, and production readings rise weekend over weekend amid ebbing pipeline maintenance”.

“Weather-driven demand for gas may rise 2.5 billion cubic feet per day this week as heating demand returns to the Upper Midwest (Minneapolis may flip from testing 90°F last week to sub-50°F highs) and heat persists in Texas and the Southeast with Houston in the low-90s°F,” Rubin added in that report.

“The background of 100+ Bcf injections and the largest recorded spring storage build are pressuring gas prices lower,” Rubin continued.

“Sabine Pass maintenance next month suggests June may average 2.0 billion cubic feet per day looser than five-year norms,” Rubin went on to state.

The analyst also noted in that report that the July contract may rise if summer heat arrives but added that “near-term pricing may be a function of trader positioning ahead of Memorial Day and June final settlement next week”.

B. Riley Wealth’s website notes that Hogan’s “distinguished financial industry career spans 30+ years, during which he has concentrated on the U.S. equity markets”. The site points out that Hogan has served as a member of the Board of Governors of Boston Stock Exchange, Inc., and a member of the Board of Directors of NASDAQ OMX BX, Inc.

Flynn is described on the PRICE Futures Group website as “one of the world’s leading energy market analysts, providing individual investors, professional traders, and institutions with up-to-the-minute investment and risk management insight into global petroleum, gasoline, and energy markets”. Flynn is also a daily contributor to Fox Business Network, the site highlights.

Rubin is an expert in econometrics, statistics, microeconomics, and energy-related public policy, the EBW Analytics Group site states, noting that he is “instrumental in designing the algorithms used in our models, and in assessing the potential discrepancies between theoretical and practical market effects of models and historical results”.

To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com