Strategists Project USA Crude Inventory Build

In an oil and gas report sent to Rigzone on Tuesday by the Macquarie team, Macquarie strategists revealed that they are forecasting that U.S. crude inventories will be up by 2.2 million barrels for the week ending April 17.

“This follows a 0.9 million barrel draw in the prior week, with the crude balance realizing significantly tighter than our expectations, and export timing potentially contributing to this gap,” the strategists said in the report.

“For the week ending 4/17, from refineries, we look for a slight reduction in crude runs (-0.1 million barrels per day) following a weak print last week; timing of turnarounds remains a key variable in this week's crude balance,” they added.

“Among net imports, we model a meaningful increase, with exports slightly lower (-0.2 million barrels per day) and imports up sharply (+0.8 million barrels per day) on a nominal basis,” they continued.

The Macquarie strategists warned in the report that the timing of cargoes remains a source of potential volatility in the weekly crude balance.

“From implied domestic supply (prod.+adj.+transfers), we look for a reduction (-0.7 million barrels per day) following an extremely strong nominal print last week,” the strategists went on to state.

“Rounding out the picture, we anticipate a similar SPR [Strategic Petroleum Reserve] draw (-4.2 million barrels) for the week ending 4/17,” they added.

The Macquarie strategists also noted in the report that, “among products”, they “look for draws in gasoline (-3.5 million barrels) and distillate (-3.0 million barrels) with jet stocks nearly flat (+0.1 million barrels)”.

“Our estimates contemplate a strong level of clean product exports continuing this week. We model implied demand for these three products at ~14.5 million barrels per day for the week ending April 17,” they said.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) latest weekly petroleum status report at the time of writing, which was released on April 15 and included data for the week ending April 10, highlighted that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, excluding those in the SPR, decreased by 0.9 million barrels from the week ending April 3 to the week ending April 10.

That EIA report showed that crude oil stocks, not including the SPR, stood at 463.8 million barrels on April 10, 464.7 million barrels on April 3, and 442.9 million barrels on April 11, 2025. Crude oil in the SPR stood at 409.2 million barrels on April 10, 413.3 million barrels on April 3, and 397.0 million barrels on April 11, 2025, the report revealed.

Total petroleum stocks - including crude oil, total motor gasoline, fuel ethanol, kerosene type jet fuel, distillate fuel oil, residual fuel oil, propane/propylene, and other oils - stood at 1.675 billion barrels on April 10, according to this EIA report. Total petroleum stocks were down 13.1 million barrels week on week and up 69.5 million barrels year on year, the report pointed out.

In a statement sent to Rigzone on April 16, Naeem Aslam, Chief Investment Officer at Zaye Capital Markets, outlined that the EIA’s latest weekly petroleum status report at the time of writing showed “a decent U.S. crude inventory draw”.

The EIA’s next weekly petroleum status report is scheduled to be released later on Wednesday. It will include data for the week ending April 17.

The weekly petroleum status report states that it provides timely information on supply and selected prices of crude oil and principal petroleum products.

“It provides the industry, press, planners, policymakers, consumers, analysts, and state and local governments with a ready, reliable source of current information,” the report notes.

To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com