Strategists Expect USA Crude Build in Next EIA Report

In an oil and gas report sent to Rigzone by the Macquarie team prior to the release of the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) next weekly petroleum status report, Macquarie strategists revealed that they are forecasting that U.S. crude inventories will be up by 2.5 million barrels for the week ending July 31.

“This follows a 7.2 million barrel draw for the week ending July 24, with the crude balance realizing significantly tighter than our expectations alongside a multi-year high in crude runs,” the strategists said in the report.

“Within this week’s crude balance, from refineries, we look for a slight reduction in crude runs (-0.1 million barrels per day), nevertheless holding at a stout ~17.2 million barrels per day,” they added.

“Among net imports, we model a meaningful increase, with exports slightly higher (+0.1 million barrels per day) and imports up significantly (+0.7 million barrels per day) on a nominal basis,” they continued.

The strategists warned in the report that the timing of cargoes remains a source of potential volatility in the weekly crude balance.

“From implied domestic supply (prod.+adj. +transfers), we look for a bounce-back (+0.9 million barrels per day),” the strategists went on to state in the report.

“Rounding out the picture, we anticipate a smaller SPR [Strategic Petroleum Reserve] draw (-2.9 million barrels) for the week ending 7/31,” they added.

“While we model SPR releases as immediately benefitting commercial stocks, the precise timing of these flows could also add noise to weekly balances,” they warned.

The Macquarie strategists also outlined in the report that, “among products”, they “look for draws across the board (gasoline/distillate/ jet -2.2/-2.0/-0.6 million barrels)”.

“We model implied demand for these three products at ~14.8 million barrels per day for the week ending 7/31,” they noted.

“Notably, while U.S. demand destruction concerns have moved from the fore, recently released monthly May EIA demand stats across gasoline, distillate, and jet showed appreciable weakness,” they warned.

The EIA’s next weekly petroleum status report is scheduled to be released on August 5. It will include data for the week ending July 31.

In its latest weekly petroleum status report at the time of writing, which was released on July 29 and included data for the week ending July 24, the EIA highlighted that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, excluding those in the SPR, decreased by 7.2 million barrels from the week ending July 17 to the week ending July 24.

That EIA report showed that crude oil stocks, not including the SPR, stood at 404.5 million barrels on July 24, 411.7 million barrels on July 17, and 426.7 million barrels on July 25, 2025. The July 24 figure represented a 1.7 percent week on week drop and a 5.2 percent year on year drop, the EIA report highlighted.

Crude oil in the SPR stood at 307.7 million barrels on July 29, 311.4 million barrels on July 17, and 402.7 million barrels on July 25, 2025, the report outlined. This July 24 figure marked a 1.2 percent week on week decrease and a 23.6 percent year on year decrease, the report pointed out.

In a statement posted on the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) website on March 11, U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright outlined that the DOE would be releasing 172 million barrels of oil from the SPR as part of a wider plan from the International Energy Agency to release 400 million barrels of oil and refined products.

A release posted on the IEA’s website on the same day stated that 32 member countries of the agency unanimously agreed to make 400 million barrels of oil from their emergency reserves available to the market “to address disruptions in oil markets stemming from the war in the Middle East”.

The EIA’s latest report at the time of writing showed that total petroleum stocks - including crude oil, total motor gasoline, fuel ethanol, kerosene type jet fuel, distillate fuel oil, residual fuel oil, propane/propylene, and other oils - stood at 1.526 billion barrels on July 24. Total petroleum stocks were down 7.5 million barrels week on week and down 134.2 million barrels year on year, the report revealed.

In an oil and gas report sent to Rigzone by Macquarie on July 27, Macquarie strategists revealed that they were forecasting that U.S. crude inventories would be down by 2.5 million barrels for the week ending July 24.

“This follows a 2.0 million barrel build for the week ending July 17, with the crude balance realizing slightly looser than our expectations,” the strategists stated in that report.

The EIA states in its weekly petroleum status report that the publication “provides timely information on supply and selected prices of crude oil and principal petroleum products”.

“It provides the industry, press, planners, policymakers, consumers, analysts, and State and local governments with a ready, reliable source of current information,” it adds.

To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com