Several Key Narratives Continue to Develop in Libya

A number of “key narratives” continue to develop within Libya, according to Dryad Global’s latest Maritime Security Threat Advisory (MSTA).

“Internally three key power centers are emerging with the potential for a return to conflict … increasing,” the MSTA stated.

“With Libya currently split between East and West it remains to be seen to what extent current oil output can be maintained in the face of an increasing threat of conflict,” the MSTA added.

In a report sent to Rigzone recently, Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research noted that Libya is currently torn between two competing governments and said prospects of an institutional reunification remain poor in the near term, “while the re-emergence of General Khalifa Haftar as a key power-broker has elevated the risk of a return to conflict”.

“Should the security environment deteriorate, oil and gas infrastructure would likely be targeted, cutting off exports and production,” Fitch Solutions stated in the report.

Earlier this month, the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) encouraged political leaders to “swiftly reach complete, final and time-bound arrangements to take the country to elections in 2023”.

“The Mission’s position remains clear that a national compromise is urgently needed to establish a clear pathway to elections with a specific timeline to open a new era for Libya, its neighbors and the region,” UNSMIL said in a statement posted on its website.

“UNSMIL, in line with its mandate, remains ready to support genuine initiatives aimed at achieving a national consensus towards a Libyan-Libyan solution to the protracted political crisis,” UNSMIL added in the statement.

According to the latest OPEC Annual Statistical Bulletin, Libya, an OPEC member who joined the organization in 1962, saw crude oil production of 1.2 million barrels in 2021. As of last year, the country’s proven crude oil reserves stood at 48.3 million barrels, the OPEC Annual Statistical Bulletin showed.

To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com