OPEC+ Countries Will Start Unwinding 2MM Bpd Cut from April

A statement posted on OPEC’s website on Monday revealed that Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman will start unwinding a 2.2 million barrel per day cut from next month.

“The eight OPEC+ countries, which previously announced additional voluntary adjustments in April and November 2023, namely Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman met virtually on March 3, 2025, to review global market conditions and the future outlook,” the statement noted.

“Taking into account the healthy market fundamentals and the positive market outlook, they re-affirmed their decision agreed upon on December 5, 2024, to proceed with a gradual and flexible return of the 2.2 million barrel per day voluntary adjustments starting on 1st April, 2025, while remaining adaptable to evolving conditions,” it added.

“Accordingly, this gradual increase may be paused or reversed subject to market conditions. This flexibility will allow the group to continue to support oil market stability,” it continued.

A table included in the statement, which showed “production levels with the phase-out of only November 2023 voluntary adjustments, which will be applied starting from April 2025 until September 2026”, outlined that Saudi Arabia’s output will jump from 9.034 million barrels per day in April to 9.478 million barrels per day in December this year, and 9.978 million barrels per day in September 2026.

According to the table, Russia’s production will rise from 9.004 million barrels per day in April to 9.214 million barrels per day in December 2025, and 9.449 million barrels per day in September 2026.

A table included in a statement posted on OPEC’s site back in December, which also showed “production levels with the phase-out of only November 2023 voluntary adjustments, which will be applied starting from April 2025 until September 2026”, outlined that Saudi Arabia and Russia’s production would each come in at 8.978 million barrels per day from January to March 2025.

The latest statement posted on OPEC’s site noted that “the eight countries reiterated their collective commitment to full conformity with the additional voluntary production adjustments as agreed under the 53rd JMMC meeting on April 3, 2024”.

“They also confirmed their intention to fully compensate for any overproduced volumes since January 2024, in accordance with the compensation plans submitted to the OPEC Secretariat, ensuring that all compensations are completed by June 2026,” it added.

“The countries with overproduced volumes have also agreed to frontload their compensation plans, so that more of the overproduced volumes are compensated in the earlier months of the compensation period, and will submit their updated compensation schedules to the OPEC Secretariat by the 17th of March 2025,” it continued.

In a market analysis sent to Rigzone on Tuesday, Joseph Dahrieh, Managing Principal at Tickmill, said “crude oil futures continue to slide following OPEC+’s decision to increase output by 138,000 barrels per day in April and the uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs”.

“The decision to unwind previous production cuts raises concerns about potential oversupply. With increased output, global crude prices face downward pressure, particularly if demand growth fails to match the rise in supply,” he added.

A statement posted on OPEC’s website in December revealed that Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman “decided … to extend the additional voluntary adjustments of 1.65 million barrels per day that were announced in April 2023, until the end of December 2026”.

“Moreover, these countries will extend their additional voluntary adjustments of 2.2 million barrels per day, that were announced in November 2023, until the end of March 2025 and then the 2.2 million barrels per day adjustments will be gradually phased out on a monthly basis until the end of September 2026 to support market stability”, that statement added.

“This monthly increase can be paused or reversed subject to market conditions,” it highlighted.

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