Oil Will Hit $100 in Around 18 Months

The oil price will hit $100 per barrel in around 18 months.

That’s what Orascom Investment Holding Chairman and CEO Naguib Sawiris believes, a new CNBC television interview has revealed. 

“I actually believe that in, let’s say, 18 months from now the oil will hit $100,” Sawiris told CNBC via phone in the interview, which was published on CNBC’s website on May 6.

“The shale industry will vanish for at least one year … and the start-up is going to be difficult because banks are going to be very reluctant to finance them back because they know that they’re very vulnerable … even [in] traditional oil many of the U.S. facilities have closed down,” Sawiris added.

“The world is growing anyhow, even with this recession, so suddenly when the demand is still there and is coming … and they want oil, it will not be there because most of the people are shut down. So, the offering will be less than the need … and then the price will go back very high,” Sawiris continued.

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s latest short-term energy outlook, which was released on April 7, Brent crude and WTI will average $45.62 and $41.12, respectively, in 2021. Standard Chartered currently believes Brent and WTI will average $44 and $41, respectively, next year.

Without giving exact figures, Rystad Energy told Rigzone on May 6 that Brent and WTI will strengthen “a bit” in 2021 from where it will average this year and then rise “quite a lot” in 2022.

“Demand will be back up, but supply will not be where it normally would due to the shut-downs and the lack of investments and drilling,” A Rystad spokesperson said.

At the time of writing, Brent was trading at around $29 per barrel and WTI was trading at around $24 per barrel.

Orascom Investment Holding is a holding company investing in industries that are “critical to shaping the future”, according to the company’s website. Sawiris, who is also the chairman of La Mancha Holding, a private natural resource investment vehicle of the Sawiris family group, has a net worth of $3 billion, as of May 7, according to Forbes.

To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com