Oil Prices Surge Amid Increasing Geopolitical Concerns

Oil prices surged amid increasing concerns about the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, Daniel Takieddine, Co-Founder and CEO of Sky Links Capital Group, said in a market analysis sent to Rigzone on Thursday.

“With negotiations reaching a standstill, the market is contending with the prospect of a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which could continue to sustain physical constraints on global crude supply,” Takieddine warned.

“Reports indicating that the United States could be evaluating military options have further intensified these concerns, contributing to the momentum of the current price rally,” he added.

In the analysis, the Co-Founder and CEO of Sky Links Capital Group said the market is expected to remain highly sensitive to further developments in the region, “as any new escalation could push oil prices higher”.

“While any measurable diplomatic progress could alleviate current concerns and foster hopes for a reopening of the Strait, the subsequent return to normal export levels would likely be a gradual process,” he noted.

“Given that a full restoration of operations could take several weeks, the speed of any potential price correction may be limited, suggesting that prices could remain at elevated levels for the immediate future,” Takieddine warned.

In a commodities note posted on Saxo Bank’s website on Thursday, Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, highlighted that crude oil surged to a fresh wartime high in Asian trading, “with the expiring June Brent contract briefly trading near $125 per barrel, while the new front-month July contract rose above $113 [per barrel]”.

“With the Strait still closed and physical energy markets tightening further, the immediate risk remains skewed towards even higher prices until shipping flows are restored and regional supply chains begin normalizing,” he said.

“Reports that President Trump is considering fresh military options in Iran have sharpened concerns that the conflict may broaden rather than move towards resolution,” he added.

“That raises the risk of prolonged regional instability, deeper supply disruptions, renewed pressure on already depleted strategic reserves, and mounting risks to global growth,” he went on to warn.

In a separate commodities note posted on the bank’s website on Wednesday, Hansen noted that crude oil had resumed its war driven rally, “with Brent rising almost non-stop since a brief mid-month tumble to $86 [per barrel], when hopes for a peace deal and a short-lived reopening of the Strait of Hormuz triggered a sharp but temporary correction”.

“Since then, a renewed U.S. and Iranian blockage of the strait has pushed prices sharply higher,” he added.

In this note, Hansen said the near closure of the Strait of Hormuz “continues to prolong a disruption that is steadily tightening global energy markets”. He also warned in the note that the market is no longer pricing the disruption as a short-lived front-month squeeze.

“While the 2026 Brent annual average has only edged higher over the past month to $95 per barrel, the bigger move has occurred further out the curve, with 2027 rising 25 percent to $78 [per barrel] and 2028 climbing 16 percent to $74 [per barrel],” he highlighted.

“This points to growing expectations of a prolonged supply shock driven by damaged Middle East infrastructure, lower production capacity, and the eventual need to rebuild depleted commercial and strategic reserves,” he continued.

Rigzone has contacted the White House and the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs for comment on Takieddine’s statement and Hansen’s commodities notes. At the time of writing, neither have responded to Rigzone.

To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com