Oil Price Projected to Hit $185 in 2050

Oil Price Projected to Hit $185 in 2050
Brent is projected to hit $185 per barrel in 2050, in 2018 dollars, in the high oil price case of the EIA's latest International Energy Outlook report.

Brent crude oil is projected to hit a value of $185 per barrel in 2050, in 2018 dollars, in the high oil price case of the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) latest International Energy Outlook report.

The report also offers a low oil price case, which places oil at $45 per barrel, in 2018 dollars, in 2050 and a reference case, which has oil at $100 per barrel, in 2018 dollars, in 2050.

The reference case reflects current trends and relationships among supply, demand and prices in the future and includes some anticipated changes over time, the report highlights. The high and low oil price cases address the uncertainty associated with world energy prices, the report notes.

“In the high oil price case, energy demand increases because non-OECD (Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development) economies grow more quickly than in the reference case, despite tighter petroleum supply conditions,” the report states.

“Although energy consumption rises, higher oil prices limit the growth in liquid fuels and consumers conserve or switch to alternative fuels whenever possible,” the report adds.

The report notes that in the low oil price case, lower economic activity, “especially in countries that are not a part of the OECD”, discourages energy consumption.

“Simultaneously but independently, greater resource availability and lower extraction costs encourage additional petroleum supplies, despite the reduced economic growth. The resulting lower oil prices encourage liquid fuels consumption and discourage energy conservation and fuel switching,” the report adds.

The EIA’s International Energy Outlook presents an analysis of long-term world energy markets in sixteen regions through 2050. The report highlights that energy market projections are uncertain “because the events that shape future developments in technology, demographic changes, economic trends and resource availability that drive energy use are fluid”.

To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com


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Victor Hamdan  |  September 30, 2019
I think that the range could be from $25 to $300 Guesstimate. :)
Rudolf Huber  |  September 29, 2019
This price will immediately make any unconventional oil and gas resource economic. BUT - I have seen this story before and it ended in tears. Let's see how this one goes.
Ali Khan  |  September 28, 2019
Seriously? Oil companies gave up wasting their and everybody else’s time with even short- and medium-term predictions a LOOOONG time ago.
Baris Arslan  |  September 27, 2019
Complete nonsense to speculate about the oil price in 2050.
Tom Darling  |  September 27, 2019
30 years from now? That’s laughable. Wasn’t WTI supposed to be above $70/bbl now? With costs that forecast could equivalent to the current price or less.
Mitchell Beer  |  September 27, 2019
Ha! That's about the time when solar and wind + storage will hit roughly...zero? They're already down in the range of 3 to 4¢ per kilowatt-hour. Anyone still think unsubsidized fossils can compete?
Morten Olsson  |  September 27, 2019
Well, "experts" said that after the attack in Saudiarabia's oilprice would hit 120-130USD. Colleagues, were back at around 62-63USD a barrel today. Speculation is one thing, facts is another...
Scott McCollum  |  September 26, 2019
With a price range that wide, it basically means the oil price in 2050 is a complete unknown. It could be over $100 next year...or it could be $35. Trying to guess 2050 is just that - a guess.