Oil May Hit $380 Per Barrel
World oil prices could hit $380 per barrel in 2050.
That’s according to one scenario published in Lukoil’s recent Global Energy Perspectives to 2050 report, which considered three scenarios for the global energy sector – Evolution, Equilibrium and Transformation.
The report outlined that, taking into account a carbon price, oil prices will vary greatly depending the scenario. High carbon prices and inflation were projected to lead to $380 per barrel oil prices in the Transformation scenario, with prices in the Equilibrium and Evolution scenarios forecasted to come in at $197 per barrel and $128 per barrel, respectively.
Lukoil’s report notes that the Evolution scenario assumes the ongoing development of global energy markets within the framework of the current international energy policy and national programs, considering existing technological capabilities. The Equilibrium scenario is said to be based on a balance between achieving climate goals and economic development and the Transformation scenario is said to assume a radical restructuring of global energy and industry as well as carbon neutrality of the leading economies by 2050.
“In our outlook we estimate three possible decarbonization trajectories, including the Transformation scenario, which assumes aggressive phase out of hydrocarbons and the most efficient and rapid development of renewable energy and electric transport,” The President of Lukoil, V.U. Alekperov, stated in the report.
“At the same time, according to our estimates, the development of the global energy is currently going according to the Evolution scenario, which does not allow to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement,” he added in the report.
“In this regard, it is necessary to focus even more on decarbonizing production, creating incentives for the development of renewable energy, other low-carbon technologies and energy efficiency. At the same time, it is important to minimize the possible negative consequences of an accelerated energy transition, including a significant increase in the cost of energy resources,” Alekperov went on to state.
Lukoil’s Global Energy Perspectives to 2050 report was presented in Moscow on December 17 by Leonid Fedun, the company’s vice president for strategic development. In a statement posted on its website, Lukoil noted that it publishes such outlooks on a regular basis and carefully considers the outlined trends and forecasts to develop business strategy.
According to its site, Lukoil is one of the largest publicly traded, vertically integrated oil and gas companies in the world accounting around for around two percent of the world’s oil production and around one percent of the proved hydrocarbon reserves. The business has more than 100,000 employees, its site shows.
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