Op-Ed: Global Oil Market Trends, US Production Stump OPEC Strategy



Op-Ed: Global Oil Market Trends, US Production Stump OPEC Strategy
Crude oil demand will have to put supply in its place before prices will manage a sustainable rally.

Global demand is forecasted to grow 1.3 MMbpd in both 2017 and 2018. Plugging that into the equation implies a global crude stock drawdown of 600,000 bpd this year and about 500,000 bpd in 2018.

“At this point, the oil market is no longer pricing in expectations, because expectations of global rebalancing have not turned into reality, at least so far,” SG analysts said. “The bottom line is that nothing but a consistent pattern of stock draws will provide sustainable uplift for prices. The market needs to see the rebalancing actually begin before it starts to price in.”


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