Energy Stocks Hold Their Ground

Energy stocks made new highs on 7-16-04, and did not fall apart on 7-19, which is good news for those still bullish on the sector. The break out is significant because crude oil prices remained steady over the weekend, with crude oil hovering near $41. The next thing to watch for is whether crude can break the old highs near $42.35, and if the natural gas, oil, and oil service indexes can remain above their break out points in the short term.

Oil supply data will be released on Wednesday and should be the next catalyst.

Crude oil futures were steady in pre U.S. trading on 7-20. The $40 pivot point has now been exceeded, becoming support, with the $38.50 area providing more important longer term support.

The Philadelphia Oil Service Index (OSX) remained in the 110-112 area. A break below 98 its 200-day moving average, could send it plummeting to the 88 area in a hurry. For more details on trading the energy sector visit our energy timing page, featuring our highly effective OIH timing model and our Top Ten Energy Stock List.

The Amex Oil Index (XOI) delivered the break out above 650, with the 610-627 area being key support. This is still a crucial juncture for the entire oil sector, as a continued failure in the near term could lead to a major top forming. A close below 600 would be a very negative technical development. For immediate analysis, including stock picks, and the latest in technical analysis of the entire energy complex, our subscriber section has a full complement of recommendations in oil service and the rest of the energy complex.

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