Russell: India, Not China, Powering Growth in Fuel Demand

This is using a conservative conversion rate, the crude oil factor of 7.3 barrels per tonne, while the factors for the main products India consumes, diesel and gasoline, are 7.5 and 8.5, respectively.

If the pace of fuel demand growth for the first seven months of India's April to March fiscal year is maintained, it puts the nation on track for consumption of at least 3.6 million bpd for the 2015-16 year.

If this is achieved, it will mean that India's fuel demand growth was 8.7 percent higher in 2015-16 over the prior year, equivalent to a gain of about 290,000 bpd.

China's apparent oil demand was 10.14 million bpd in October, a gain of 0.9 percent from the same month a year earlier, but only 0.1 percent higher than in September.

Detailed figures for October aren't yet available, but it's likely that the apparent demand number will be below the moving 12-month average, which stood at 10.67 million bpd in September.

Assuming China's apparent demand for the whole of 2015 comes in around 10.6 million barrels, this represents a gain of about 5.9 percent over 2014's 10.06 million bpd.

China Storage Distorts

But it's here that one runs into difficulty with China's fuel figures, as apparent demand is a derived number that doesn't include changes in inventory levels, data which isn't disclosed by the authorities.


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