Oil Oversupply Meets Rising Demand in Quietest Market Since 2013

Investors pulled $1.02 billion from the ETF last quarter, the biggest outflow since the three months ended June 2009, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

After rallying from March’s six-year low, crude’s upside has been capped by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ pledge to keep pumping more crude and rising U.S. output despite the unprecedented drop in drilling rigs.

OPEC Production

OPEC produced 32.1 million barrels a day in June, above its 30 million quota for a 13th month, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. U.S. output was 9.6 million barrels a day last week, close to a weekly record, according to the Energy Information Administration.

“We are more likely to continue trading in a range until we see a material shift in U.S. production,” Harry Tchilinguirian, BNP Paribas SA’s London-based head of commodity markets strategy, said by phone.

U.S. gasoline demand increased to 9.54 million barrels a day in the four weeks ended June 26, the highest level since 2007, according to the EIA.

Oil could break the current range and move lower if Greece exits from the euro zone or a nuclear deal with Iran is signed, Seth Kleinman, head of energy strategy at Citigroup, said by phone June 29.

Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and his creditors sparred heading into a July 5 referendum on austerity, deepening Greece’s financial misery.