EIA Projects Continued Volatility In Oil Prices

“The reverse is true in the ‘Low Oil Price’ case: lower demand, higher OPEC upstream investment, and lower non-OPEC exploration and development costs cause the Brent spot price to increase slowly to $76 per barrel, or 47 percent  below the price in the Reference case, in 2040.

The EIA report also predicts continued increases in U.S. crude oil and natural gas production and continued declines in oil and gas imports.

The news was especially good news for the U.S. economy and consumers.

“Growth in U.S. energy production—led by crude oil and natural gas—and only modest growth in demand reduces U.S. reliance on imported energy supplies,” the report stated. “Natural gas is the dominant U.S. energy export, while liquid fuels continue to be imported.”

EIA noted that through 2020, strong growth in domestic crude oil production from tight formations leads to a decline in net petroleum imports and growth in net petroleum product exports in all cases.

“The United States transitions from being a modest net importer of natural gas to a net exporter by 2017,” according to the report. “U.S. export growth continues after 2017, with net exports in 2040 ranging from 3.0 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) in the Low Oil Price case to 13.1 Tcf in the High Oil and Gas Resource case.”

U.S. energy consumption grows at a modest rate over the projection period, averaging 0.3% per year from 2013 through 2040 in the reference case. EIA predicts a marginal decrease in transportation sector energy consumption will contrast with growth in most other sectors. Declines in energy consumption tend to result from the adoption of more energy-efficient technologies and existing policies that promote increased energy efficiency, according to EIA.


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