Kemp: Factors That Will Drive US Oil Production In 2015
That would be a marked slowdown from the 1.28 million bpd increase between December 2013 and December 2014 or the 790,000 bpd increase between December 2012 and December 2013.
At a rough approximation, most forecasters expect U.S. production to be flat in 2015 - after two years of 1 million bpd growth, during which time North American shale producers were the marginal suppliers to the world oil market.
And every forecast for U.S. oil production contains an implicit forecast for what will happen to oil prices over the course of the year.
EIA thinks the number of active drilling rigs in the United States will fall by 24 percent between January and October 2015 before starting to recover in November.
That forecast is based on its assumption WTI prices will increase to an average of $53 per barrel by June and $67 in December.
WTI prices have so far averaged just under $48 so far in 2015, so EIA's forecasts for rig counts and production are conditioned on a $20 price increase by the end of the year.
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