Exxon Sees Abundant Oil, Gas Far Into Future

Exxon's vision is broadly similar to that of other forecasters, including those by the International Energy Agency, which released its most recent long-term forecast last month. Demand for energy will grow rapidly in coming decades in the developing world, while demand in the developed world is expected to be flat or even decline as countries impose stricter emissions policies and become more efficient.

The use of coal, now the world's second most important fuel after oil, will eventually slip as countries try to reduce air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions. Natural gas, which burns cleaner than coal and emits half the global warming gases as coal, will supplant coal in the number two spot.

Exxon takes a relatively dim view of the prospects for renewable energy, however. It believes that some of the aggressive targets for renewables cited by governments are too expensive to come to fruition, and the technologies have not advanced far enough to make them cheap or effective enough for broad adoption globally.

"They are just not ready for prime time," Colton says.

While Exxon expects wind, solar and other non-hydro electric energy to grow faster by far than any other energy technology over the period, those renewables will provide just 4 percent of the world's energy by 2040, up from 1 percent in 2010. Fossil fuels will still dominate: Oil will account for 32 percent of world energy, natural gas for 26 percent, and coal for 19 percent. Nuclear and biomass will account for 8 percent each, and hydroelectric power will account for 3 percent.

Michael E. Mann, a climate scientist and director of Penn State's Earth System Science Center, notes that many experts dispute Exxon's conclusion on renewables because in several places around the world renewable energy is competitive with the price of traditional power, even without a high price on carbon pollution that Exxon and others seem to agree is coming.

Scientists say if Exxon's vision comes to pass the world's climate system will become dangerous and chaotic, and some environmental economists suggest that economies will be forced to stop burning fossil fuels at such high rates to prevent catastrophic climate change.


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