Thailand Turns Off Tap on Gas Imports as Economy Falters
"It will take at least 2-3 years for the situation to spring back to normalcy as we don't see a government forming until mid- or late-2015," said Sri Paravaikkarasu, an analyst at energy consultancy FGE, predicting annual gas demand growth would be around 2 percent over the next few years.
Thai gas demand grew just 0.4 percent in 2013, the lowest since 1989 when consumption fell 2 percent, data from the Energy Ministry's website (www.eppo.go.th) showed. The 2013 growth compared with 7-8 percent in each of the previous three years.
First-half 2013 demand was still a healthy 7 percent but nine-month demand slowed to 2.8 percent, showing the impact of the political unrest, which gathered pace in the third quarter. Full-year gas use for power generation rose by only 0.6 percent, while consumption by petrochemical plants fell 3.2 percent.
PTT Cuts Targets
The trend has continued, with Thailand consuming 4,423 million standard cubic feet per day (mmscfd) of gas in the first quarter, down 5.4 percent from a year ago, the Energy Ministry data showed. By comparison, 2013's first quarter saw demand climb 8.2 percent.
The first-quarter decline has led PTT to cut its LNG import target from the spot market this year to around 1.4-1.5 million tonnes from a previous estimate of 2 million tonnes, said Somkiat Masunthasuwan, executive vice president of the company's natural gas supply and trading department.
PTT has also reduced its gas sales forecast this year by 1-2 percent from a previous estimate of 4,700-4,800 mmscfd.
About 80-85 percent of Thai gas demand is met from local production and 12-16 percent from Myanmar, with LNG filling the remaining 3-4 percent.
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