Oil Demand Expected to Fall 11.5 Percent



Oil Demand Expected to Fall 11.5 Percent
Global oil demand will decrease by 11.5 percent year on year, according to Rystad Energy's latest demand forecast.

Global oil demand will decrease by 11.5 percent, or 11.4 million barrels per day (MMbpd), year on year in 2020, according to Rystad Energy’s latest demand forecast.

Total oil demand is projected to fall to 88.1MMbpd this year from approximately 99.5MMbpd last year, Rystad outlined. May demand is expected to fall by 20.5 percent to 78.5MMbpd and June demand is forecasted to hit 84MMbpd.

Rystad believes total global demand for road fuels will fall by 9.9 percent, or 4.7 MMbpd, year on year to 42.7MMbpd. Jet fuel demand is anticipated to decline by almost 40.8 percent, or 2.9MMbpd, year on year to 4.3MMbpd. Rystad forecasts that in 2020, total oil demand in the United States will fall 11.8 percent, or 2.4MMbpd, to 18.1MMbpd and that total oil demand in Europe will drop by 15.6 percent, or 2.2MMbpd, to 12MMbpd.

Looking ahead to 2021, Rystad expects total oil demand to rebound to 96.3MMbpd. Road fuel demand is expected to average 46MMbpd and jet fuel demand is expected to average 6.2MMbpd next year. Rystad anticipates total oil demand in the U.S. to average 19.4MMbpd and total oil demand in Europe to average 13.2MMbpd in 2021.

Rystad’s newest demand forecast is the latest in a line of weekly predictions that aim to calculate the effect of Covid-19 on oil demand. These are frequently updated as a result of evolving developments around the world.

Rystad’s previous demand forecast saw oil demand falling by 10.8 percent, or 10.7MMbpd, in 2020. Road fuel demand was anticipated to fall by 10.8 percent, or 5.1MMbpd, year on year and jet fuel demand was projected to drop by almost 33.6 percent, or 2.4Mmbpd, year on year.

There have been 5.9 million confirmed cases of Covid-19 around the world, with 367,166 deaths, as of May 31, according to the latest figures from the World Health Organization.

To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com



WHAT DO YOU THINK?


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John David LaRue  |  June 02, 2020
Second quarter will be way down, maybe 20%, third quarter will actually be up and fourth quarter will set records. Expect spot oil shortages by year end.
Austin Taylor Childers  |  June 01, 2020
Silly nonsense