NOAA Predicts 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Activity

In a statement posted on its website recently, the U.S. Department of Commerce’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) revealed that it is predicting a “below normal” Atlantic hurricane season this year.

NOAA noted in its statement that its outlook for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, which NOAA highlighted runs from June 1 to November 30, sees a 35 percent chance of a “near-normal season”, a 10 percent chance of an “above-normal” season, and a 55 percent chance of a “below-normal” season.

The agency revealed in the statement that it is forecasting a total of 8-14 named storms with winds of 39 miles per hour or higher. Of those, three to six are forecast to become hurricanes with winds of 74 miles per hour or higher, including one to three major hurricanes, with winds of 111 miles per hour or higher, NOAA outlined.

NOAA said in the statement that it has “70 percent confidence in these ranges”. It pointed out that an average season has 14 named storms with seven hurricanes, including three major hurricanes. NOAA outlined in its statement that it expects a below normal hurricane season in the Atlantic this year “due to competing factors”.

“El Niño is expected to develop and intensify during the hurricane season, while ocean temperatures in the Atlantic are expected to be slightly warmer than normal and trade winds are likely weaker than average,” NOAA said.

“El Niño conditions tend to support less tropical storms and hurricanes, while warmer ocean temperatures and low winds support a more active year,” it added.

NOAA’s National Weather Service Director Ken Graham went on to warn in the statement that, “although El Niño’s impact in the Atlantic Basin can often suppress hurricane development, there is still uncertainty in how each season will unfold”.

“That is why it’s essential to review your hurricane preparedness plan now. It only takes one storm to make for a very bad season,” he added.

NOAA noted that its outlook is for overall seasonal activity based on large-scale weather and climate patterns. It highlighted that it does not indicate where or when any storms may affect land “as that is determined by short-term and variable weather patterns”. It also pointed out that its outlook is not a landfall forecast. 

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said in the statement, “with the most advanced forecast modeling and hurricane tracking technologies, NOAA and the National Weather Service are prepared to deliver real-time storm forecasts and warnings”.

“Our experts are integrating cutting-edge tools to ensure communities in the path of storms receive the earliest, most accurate information possible,” he added.

NOAA Administrator Neil Jacobs said in the statement, “NOAA’s rapid integration of advanced technology, including AI-based weather models, drones, and next-generation satellite data will deliver actionable science to safeguard the lives and livelihoods of the American people”.

“These new capabilities, combined with the unmatched expertise of our National Weather Service forecasters, will produce the most accurate forecasts possible to protect communities in harm’s way,” he added.

NOAA noted in its statement that its National Hurricane Center will implement an improved version of the tropical cyclone forecast cone graphic that will now include tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings for inland areas for the continental United States, Hawaii, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. 

It also said the NHC will begin testing an experimental version of the tropical cyclone track forecast cone that will capture a greater range of possibilities for the track of the storm by incorporating uncertainties for both direction of movement and timing and that the NHC will provide new products and services for the Hawaiian Islands to include storm surge watches and warnings, and a peak storm surge graphic.

In addition, NOAA noted in its statement that, in collaboration with the Unified Forecast System community, it is testing an experimental high-resolution Seasonal Forecast System that utilizes the latest modeling technology and new methods to assess the evolution of the global ocean-atmosphere system. NOAA said the system is helping forecasters better simulate tropical storms and hurricanes, and more effectively predict the number of hurricanes and major hurricanes. 

NOAA added that its Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML) is using machine learning to quality-control data collected from tail Doppler radar, which it pointed out is a specialized radar system mounted on the back of NOAA’s ‘Hurricane Hunter’ aircraft. This new method gathers more than 25 percent more meteorological data than the current method and leads to more high-quality data to support structure and wind analysis by forecasters, NOAA said in the statement.

NOAA also noted in its statement that, for the first time, data from small uncrewed aircraft systems will be integrated into NOAA’s hurricane forecast model during the 2026 hurricane season.

“Scientists from the Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies (CIMAS) and NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML) determined that incorporating sUAS data into NOAA’s Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) can improve hurricane intensity forecast accuracy by 10 percent,” NOAA said in the statement.

NOAA highlighted in its statement that the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season outlook will be updated in early August, “ahead of the historical peak of the season, which typically extends from mid-September through October”.

The statement also highlighted that NOAA had issued seasonal hurricane outlooks for the eastern Pacific and central Pacific hurricane basins, “with both anticipated to have active seasons”. 

A statement posted on NOAA’s National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center website outlined that NOAA’s 2026 eastern Pacific Hurricane Season outlook predicts that an above normal season is most likely, with a 70 percent chance. There is a 20 percent chance of a near-normal season and only a 10 percent chance of a below-normal season, the statement warned.

This statement also noted that NOAA’s 2026 central Pacific hurricane season outlook indicates that an above-normal season is likely for the central Pacific.

In a statement posted on NOAA’s site late last year, which summarized the Atlantic, Eastern Pacific, and Central Pacific hurricane seasons in 2025, Neil Jacobs, Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere, and NOAA Administrator, highlighted that, for the first time in a decade, not a single hurricane struck the United States.

That NOAA statement noted that the Atlantic basin produced 13 named storms last year. Of these, five became hurricanes, including four major hurricanes, NOAA highlighted. In this statement, NOAA said, overall, the season fell within the predicted ranges for named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes issued in NOAA’s seasonal outlooks. Hurricane season activity was near-normal for both the Eastern Pacific basin and Central Pacific basin and fell within predicted ranges, respectively, NOAA added in the statement.

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