Most Oil Execs See USA Oil Output Increasing Due to War

Most executives expect U.S. oil production to increase in response to the Iran war.

That’s what an update to the first quarter Dallas Fed Energy Survey, which was released on Thursday, stated. The first quarter Dallas Fed Energy Survey received an update “in response to recent developments in the global oil market”, a statement sent to Rigzone last week by the Dallas Fed team revealed.

In the update, participants were asked, “by how much do you expect U.S. oil production to increase in response to the Iran war in 2026 and 2027”. Executives from 115 oil and gas firms answered this question during the survey collection period, which spanned from April 15 to April 20, with the most selected response for 2026 being “more than 0 but not more than 0.25 million barrels per day” and the most selected response for 2027 being “more than 0.25 million barrels per day but not more than 0.50 million barrels per day”, the update outlined.

The second and third most selected responses for 2026 were “no change” and “more than 0.25 million barrels per day but not more than 0.50 million barrels per day”, respectively, while the second and third most selected responses for 2027 were “more than 0 but not more than 0.25 million barrels per day” and “no change”, respectively, the update showed.

In a survey update respondents comments section, one exploration and production firm executive said, “extreme oil price volatility is leaving both small and large E&Ps unsure of whether to increase capital spending and activity”.

“Even after nearly a month of oil above $90 per barrel, rig counts declined, signaling little confidence that prices will hold,” the executive added.

“Closing the supply gap from the Iran conflict will require greater certainty and higher 2027 future prices to incentivize additional rig and frack deployments. This is also keeping supply chain inflation in the industry under check,” the executive continued.

Another exploration and production firm executive said in the comments section, “the difference between the gyration of paper market oil prices versus what seems to be substantially higher physical prices sends conflicting signals to operators who cannot plan rigs and capital budgets when prices swing wildly based on tweets”.

“Our hypothesis is [that] the paper market is being manipulated. This will likely lead to an even worse supply and demand imbalance and higher prices in the medium term (next 12 months),” this executive added.

A separate exploration and production firm executive said, “as we know, there is no way to predict the outcome of the war with Iran”.

“The effect it will have on domestic oil production depends on how long the strait remains closed, and that is how long Iran can control the movement through the strait,” this executive added.

An oil and gas support services firm executive said in the comments section, “in response to the roughly 45 days of West Texas Intermediate over $75 per barrel, we are hearing increased talk of smaller operators adding rigs”.

“We are also seeing larger independent operators move up drilling schedules,” this executive added.

The Dallas Fed Energy Survey update noted that survey participants were given the opportunity to submit comments on any special questions or on any current issues that may be affecting their businesses. Some comments were edited for grammar and clarity, the update pointed out.

Rigzone contacted industry body the American Petroleum Institute (API), the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), and the Iranian Foreign Ministry for comment on the first quarter Dallas Fed Energy Survey update.

The EIA declined to comment on the update. It did, however, highlight to Rigzone that the EIA updates its forecasts for near-term U.S. output every month in the Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO), pointing out that its most recent forecast was published on April 7 and its next forecast is planned for release on May 12.

At the time of writing, the API, DOE and Iranian Foreign Ministry have not responded to Rigzone.

In its April STEO, which completed its forecast on April 6, the EIA projected that U.S. crude oil production, including lease condensate, will average 13.51 million barrels per day in 2026 and 13.95 million barrels per day in 2027.

The EIA’s previous STEO, which was released in March, projected that U.S. crude oil production, including lease condensate, would average 13.61 million barrels per day this year and 13.83 million barrels per day next year.

Both STEOs showed that U.S. crude oil production, including lease condensate, averaged 13.59 million barrels per day in 2025.

The EIA notes in its STEO that it is the statistical and analytical agency within the DOE. It adds that, by law, its data, analyses, and forecasts are independent of approval by any other officer or employee of the U.S. government. It highlights that the views in its STEO do not represent those of DOE or any other federal agencies.

To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com