Macquarie Strategists Predict USA Crude Inventory Drop

In an oil and gas report sent to Rigzone this week, Macquarie strategists, including Walt Chancellor, revealed that they are forecasting that U.S. crude inventories will be down by 2.0 million barrels for the week ending April 24.

“This follows a 1.9 million barrel build in the prior week, with the crude balance realizing relatively close to our expectations,” the strategists said in the report.

“For the week ending 4/24, from refineries, we look for a slight increase in crude runs (+0.1 million barrels per day),” they added, noting that the timing of turnarounds remains a key variable in this week’s crude balance.

The strategists noted in the report that, “among net imports”, they “model a sharp reduction, with exports up significantly (+1.3 million barrels per day) and imports slightly higher (+0.1 million barrels per day) on a nominal basis”.

They warned that the timing of cargoes remains a source of potential volatility in the weekly crude balance.

“From implied domestic supply (prod. +adj.+transfers), we look for an increase (+0.3 million barrels per day),” the strategists went on to state in the report.

“Rounding out the picture, we anticipate a larger SPR [Strategic Petroleum Reserve] draw (-7.1 million barrels) for the week ending 4/24,” they added.

In the report, the Macquarie strategists also highlighted that, “among products”, they “look for draws in gasoline (-4.0 million barrels) and distillate (-2.4 million barrels) with jet stocks up (+0.8 million barrels)”.

“We model implied demand for these three products at ~14.4 million barrels per day for the week ending April 24,” the Macquarie strategists said in the report.

In its latest weekly petroleum status report at the time of writing, which was released on April 22 and included data for the week ending April 17, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) highlighted that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), increased by 1.9 million barrels from the week ending April 10 to the week ending April 17.

This report showed that crude oil stocks, not including the SPR, stood at 465.7 million barrels on April 17, 463.8 million barrels on April 10, and 443.1 million barrels on April 18, 2025. Crude oil in the SPR stood at 405.0 million barrels on April 17, 409.2 million barrels on April 10, and 397.5 million barrels on April 18, 2025, that EIA report revealed.

Total petroleum stocks - including crude oil, total motor gasoline, fuel ethanol, kerosene type jet fuel, distillate fuel oil, residual fuel oil, propane/propylene, and other oils - stood at 1.669 billion barrels on April 17, according to this EIA report. Total petroleum stocks were down 5.9 million barrels week on week and up 63.8 million barrels year on year, the report highlighted.

In an oil and gas report sent to Rigzone on April 21 by the Macquarie team, Macquarie strategists revealed that they were forecasting that U.S. crude inventories would be up by 2.2 million barrels for the week ending April 17.

“This follows a 0.9 million barrel draw in the prior week, with the crude balance realizing significantly tighter than our expectations, and export timing potentially contributing to this gap,” the Macquarie strategists stated in that report.

The EIA’s previous weekly petroleum status report at the time of writing, which was released on April 15 and included data for the week ending April 10, highlighted that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, excluding those in the SPR, decreased by 0.9 million barrels from the week ending April 3 to the week ending April 10.

The EIA’s next weekly petroleum status report is scheduled to be released on April 29. It will include data for the week ending April 24.

The EIA weekly petroleum status report states that it “provides timely information on supply and selected prices of crude oil and principal petroleum products”.

“It provides the industry, press, planners, policymakers, consumers, analysts, and State and local governments with a ready, reliable source of current information,” it adds.

To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com