Macquarie Strategists Forecast Week on Week USA Crude Inventory Drop

In an oil and gas report sent to Rigzone by the Macquarie team late Monday, Macquarie strategists revealed that they are forecasting that U.S. crude inventories will be down by 3.4 million barrels for the week ending May 16.

“This follows a 3.5 million barrel build in the prior week, with the crude balance yet again realizing tight relative to our expectations,” the strategists noted in the report.

“For this week’s crude balance, from refineries, we model crude runs higher (+0.2 million barrels per day). Among net imports, we model a modest reduction, with exports (+0.8 million barrels per day) and imports (+0.5 million barrels per day) higher on a nominal basis,” they added.

The Macquarie strategists warned in the report that the timing of cargoes remains a source of potential volatility in this week’s crude balance.

“From implied domestic supply (prod.+adj.+transfers), we look for a correction (-0.5 million barrels per day) following a strong nominal print last week,” the analysts went on to state in the report.

“Rounding out the picture, we anticipate a larger increase in Strategic Petroleum Reserve stocks (+0.85 million barrels) this week,” they continued.

The Macquarie strategists also noted in the report that, “among products”, they “look for a draw in distillate (-1.8 million barrels), with builds in gasoline (+1.3 million barrels) and jet (+1.0 million barrels)”.

“We model implied demand for these three products at ~14.5 million barrels per day for the week ending May 16,” the Macquarie strategists went on to state in the report.

In its latest weekly petroleum status report at the time of writing, which was released on May 14 and included data for the week ending May 9, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), highlighted that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, excluding those in the SPR, increased by 3.5 million barrels from the week ending May 2 to the week ending May 9.

That EIA report showed that crude oil stocks, not including the SPR, stood at 441.8 million barrels on May 9, 438.4 million barrels on May 2, and 457.0 million barrels on May 10, 2024. The EIA report highlighted that data may not add up to totals due to independent rounding.

Crude oil in the SPR stood at 399.7 million barrels on May 9, 399.1 million barrels on May 2, and 367.8 million barrels on May 10, 2024, the EIA report outlined. Total petroleum stocks - including crude oil, total motor gasoline, fuel ethanol, kerosene type jet fuel, distillate fuel oil, residual fuel oil, propane/propylene, and other oils - stood at 1.617 billion barrels on May 9, the report showed. Total petroleum stocks were up 5.4 million barrels week on week and up 7.0 million barrels year on year, the EIA report revealed.

In an oil and gas report sent to Rigzone on May 12 by the Macquarie team, Macquarie strategists revealed that they were forecasting that U.S. crude inventories would be up by 7.6 million barrels for the week ending May 9.

The EIA’s next weekly petroleum status report is scheduled to be released on May 21. It will include data for the week ending May 16. The report states that it provides timely information on supply and selected prices of crude oil and principal petroleum products.

The EIA describes itself on its site as the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. It collects, analyzes, and disseminates independent and impartial energy information, according to its site.

To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com