Macquarie Strategists Expect Another USA Crude Inventory Draw

In an oil and gas report sent to Rigzone this week by the Macquarie team, Macquarie strategists, including Walt Chancellor, outlined that they expect another U.S. crude inventory draw “amidst elevated exports”.

“We are forecasting U.S. crude inventories down 5.0 million barrels for the week ending May 1,” the strategists noted in the report.

“This follows a 6.2 million barrel draw in the prior week, with the crude balance realizing significantly tighter than our expectations,” they added.

“For the week ending 5/1, from refineries, we look for a slight increase in crude runs (+0.1 million barrels per day),” they continued, warning that the timing of turnarounds remains a key variable in this week’s crude balance.

“Among net imports, we model an increase, with exports modestly lower (-0.4 million barrels per day) and imports modestly higher (+0.4 million barrels per day) on a nominal basis,” the strategists said.

They noted in the report that the timing of cargoes remains a source of potential volatility in the weekly crude balance, “particularly as exports remain elevated”.

“From implied domestic supply (prod.+adj.+transfers), we look for a reduction (-0.3 million barrels per day),” the strategists said in the report.

“Rounding out the picture, we anticipate a smaller SPR [Strategic Petroleum Reserve] draw (-5.2 million barrels) for the week ending 5/1,” they added.

The Macquarie strategists also noted in the report that, “among products”, they “look for draws in gasoline (-0.4 million barrels) and distillate (-3.8 million barrels) with jet stocks slightly higher (+0.2 million barrels)”.

“We model implied demand for these three products at ~14.6 million barrels per day for the week ending May 1,” they continued.

In its latest weekly petroleum status report at the time of writing, which was released on April 29 and included data for the week ending April 24, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) highlighted that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, excluding those in the SPR, decreased by 6.2 million barrels from the week ending April 17 to the week ending April 24.

This EIA report showed that crude oil stocks, not including the SPR, stood at 459.5 million barrels on April 24, 465.7 million barrels on April 17, and 440.4 million barrels on April 25, 2025. Crude oil in the SPR stood at 397.9 million barrels on April 24, 405.0 million barrels on April 17, and 398.5 million barrels on April 25, 2025, this EIA report revealed.

Total petroleum stocks - including crude oil, total motor gasoline, fuel ethanol, kerosene type jet fuel, distillate fuel oil, residual fuel oil, propane/propylene, and other oils - stood at 1.645 billion barrels on April 24, according to the EIA’s latest weekly petroleum status report at the time of writing. Total petroleum stocks were down 24.1 million barrels week on week and up 34.5 million barrels year on year, the EIA report pointed out.

In an oil and gas report sent to Rigzone last week, Macquarie strategists, including Chancellor, revealed that they were forecasting that U.S. crude inventories would be down by 2.0 million barrels for the week ending April 24.

“This follows a 1.9 million barrel build in the prior week, with the crude balance realizing relatively close to our expectations,” the Macquarie strategists said in that report.

The EIA’s next weekly petroleum status report is scheduled to be released on May 6. It will include data for the week ending May 1. The report states that it provides “timely information on supply and selected prices of crude oil and principal petroleum products”.

“It provides the industry, press, planners, policymakers, consumers, analysts, and State and local governments with a ready, reliable source of current information,” the report adds.

To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com