Intelligence Co Provides Black Sea Update

In the Black Sea, Putin has partially mobilized Russia’s reservists to support its military campaign in Ukraine and issued a thinly veiled nuclear threat to Ukraine and its Western allies, Dryad Global’s latest Maritime Security Threat Advisory (MSTA) highlighted.

Despite these events, however, there has been no significant change in the immediate risk profile in the Black Sea, according to the MSTA, which was released this week. While the company’s MSTA noted that in the short-to-medium term there is a possibility of escalations in Putin’s offensives in port cities that could increase risk to vessels operating in Ukrainian territorial waters, it stated that, at present, the grain deal is still in operation and there are no indications of an immediate threat to the continuance of the initiative. 

In its previous MSTA, which was published last week, Dryad revealed that, in the Black Sea as of September 17, 155 vessels had successfully transited the grain corridor.

“However, 82 ships with 418 seafarers remain stuck around Ukrainian ports despite the opening of the UN backed grain corridor,” the MSTA noted.

“To date, the initiative only involved dry-bulk ships within Chornomorsk, Odesa and Yuzhny port. Dozens of other vessels, including oil tankers, are currently unable to access the corridor and are awaiting approval to leave,” the MSTA added.

In an MSTA released earlier this month, Dryad outlined that Russia had criticized the Black Sea grain deal “claiming that instead of sending shipments to developing countries to mitigate the humanitarian disaster, shipments were being redirected to EU states”.

“Turkey later expressed similar concerns. France and Romania have agreed to a deal to increase Ukrainian grain exports to developing countries,” that MSTA added.

“These developments underscore that the grain deal is still fragile, and re-negotiations are possible in the short-to-medium term. Nonetheless, Russia and Turkey have committed to honor the current agreement at this time,” the MSTA continued.

At a signing ceremony on July 27 in Istanbul, Türkiye, UN Secretary-General António Guterres said the “unprecedented agreement” on the resumption of Ukrainian grain exports via the Black Sea amid the ongoing war was “a beacon of hope”. The UN plan also paves the way for Russian food and fertilizer to reach global markets, the UN outlined.

To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com