Industry Set for Worst Discovery Toll Since 1946

The oil and gas industry is on course for its worst discovery toll since 1946, according to new Rystad Energy analysis.

Global oil and gas finds in 2021 will hit their lowest full year level in 75 years if the remainder of December fails to yield any significant finds, the company outlined. As of the end of November, total global discovered volumes this year are calculated at 4.7 billion barrels of oil equivalent (boe), which marks a significant drop from the 12.5 billion boe which Rystad highlighted was discovered in 2020. 2019 saw 15.8 billion boe discovered, 2018 saw 9.9 billion boe, 2017 saw 12.1 billion boe, 2016 saw 7.9 billion boe and 2015 saw 20.3 billion boe, a Rystad chart shows.

Seven new discoveries were announced this November, unearthing around 219 million boe of new volumes, Rystad revealed, adding that the monthly average of discovered volumes this year now stands at 424 million boe. The largest discovery in November was Lukoil’s Yoti West off the coast of Mexico, which is estimated to hold around 75 million boe of recoverable resources.

“Although some of the highly ranked prospects are scheduled to be drilled before the end of the year, even a substantial discovery may not be able to contribute towards 2021 discovered volumes as these wells may not be completed in this calendar year,” Palzor Shenga, the vice president of upstream research at Rystad Energy, said in a company statement.

“Therefore, the cumulative discovered volume for 2021 is on course to be its lowest in decades,” Shenga added in the statement.

Back in July, Rystad released a report which it said dealt a “major blow” for the size of the world’s remaining recoverable oil resources. In the report, the company estimated total recoverable oil resources at 1.725 trillion barrels, which marked a significant reduction of last year’s estimate of 1.903 trillion barrels. From this total, which shows Rystad’s estimate of how much oil is technically recoverable in the future, about 1.3 trillion barrels are sufficiently profitable to be produced before the year 2100 at a Brent real oil price of $50 per barrel, Rystad revealed.

Rystad describes itself as an independent energy research and business intelligence company providing data, tools, analytics and consultancy services to the global energy industry.

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