Hurricane Sam Could Make USA Landfall This Week
Hurricane Sam, though currently forecasted to be less intense than previous storms this season, could still make landfall on the U.S. East Coast in the middle of this week.
That’s what Rystad Energy’s senior oil markets analyst Louise Dickson said in a statement sent to Rigzone late Monday. In the statement, Dickson noted that Hurricane Sam will not likely cause colossal damage at upstream and downstream facilities but added that a powerful storm on the East Coast could trigger power shortages and blackouts at a time when natural gas prices are already stretched to maximums and add to the energy crisis fears that lift up not only oil and gas futures, but propane, gasoil, and fuel oil.
As of September 28, 5am AST, Hurricane Sam had maximum sustained winds of 130 miles per hour and a nine mile per hour northwest movement, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). The NHC is also currently tracking three other weather patterns, one of which had an 80 percent chance of cyclone formation within 48 hours as of September 28, 8am EDT.
Hurricane Ida Impact to Last to 2022
Hurricane Ida-related outages will still affect U.S. supply in the first quarter of 2022, Dickson reiterated in the latest market comment sent to Rigzone. On September 24, Dickson noted that Ida-related supply outages will average at around 300,000 barrels per day between August and December this year and around 120,000 to 125,000 barrels per day in the first quarter of 2022.
According to Rystad Energy estimates, Hurricane Ida had removed 790,000 barrels per day of U.S. Gulf of Mexico supply in September versus pre-storm levels, Dickson said in a statement sent to Rigzone on September 22.
The Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) released its final update on evacuation and shut in production statistics for Hurricane Ida on September 23. The latest data estimated that around 16.18 percent of the current oil production and about 24.27 percent of the current gas production in the Gulf of Mexico was still shut in. At its peak, Hurricane Ida shut in 95.65 percent of Gulf of Mexico oil production on August 29 and 94.47 percent of Gulf of Mexico gas production on August 31, BSEE figures show.
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