How Much Crude Oil is the World Producing?

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released recently, the world produced an average of 76.10 million barrels of crude oil per day in the third quarter of 2024.

That compares to an average of 76.19 million barrels per day in the second quarter, an average of 76.70 million barrels per day in the first quarter, and an average 76.57 million barrels per day overall in 2023, the EIA’s November STEO showed.

The U.S. made up 13.27 million barrels per day of the third quarter total, 13.23 million barrels per day of the second quarter total, 12.94 million barrels per day of the first quarter total, and 12.93 million barrels per day of the 2023 total, the STEO revealed.

OPEC+ made up 35.66 million barrels per day of the third quarter total, 35.75 million barrels per day of the second quarter total, 36.30 million barrels per day of the first quarter total, and 37.08 million barrels per day of the 2023 total, while non-OPEC+, excluding the U.S., contributed 27.16 million barrels per day of the third quarter total, 27.21 million barrels per day of the second quarter total, 27.46 million barrels per day of the first quarter total, and 26.55 million barrels per day of the 2023 total, according to the STEO.

Looking ahead, the EIA forecasts in its latest STEO that global crude oil production will average 77.04 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2024, 76.51 million barrels per day overall in 2024, and 78.28 million barrels per day overall in 2025.

The U.S. is projected to contribute 13.47 million barrels per day of the fourth quarter total, 13.23 million barrels per day of the overall 2024 total, and 13.53 million barrels per day of the overall 2025 total, the STEO showed.

The EIA expects OPEC+ to provide 35.41 million barrels per day of the fourth quarter total, 35.78 million barrels per day of the overall 2024 total, and 36.37 million barrels per day of the overall 2025 total, according to the STEO, which outlined that the organization sees non-OPEC+, excluding the U.S., contributing 28.16 million barrels per day of the fourth quarter total, 27.50 million barrels per day of the overall 2024 total, and 28.38 million barrels per day of the overall 2025 total.

According to the EIA’s November STEO, surplus crude oil production capacity stood at 4.35 million barrels per day in the third quarter of this year, 4.34 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 4.29 million barrels per day in the first quarter, and 3.67 million barrels per day overall in 2023.

Surplus crude oil production capacity is projected in the STEO to come in at 4.48 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2024, 4.37 million barrels per day overall in 2024, and 4.18 million barrels per day overall in 2025.

In its previous STEO, which was released in October, the EIA showed that global crude oil production averaged 76.22 million barrels per day in the third quarter of 2024.

This output averaged 76.17 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 76.69 million barrels per day in the first quarter, and 76.55 million barrels per day overall in 2023, according to the EIA’s October STEO.

That STEO forecast that global crude oil production would average 76.95 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of this year, 76.51 million barrels per day overall in 2024, and 78.32 million barrels per day overall in 2025.

Surplus crude oil production capacity stood at 4.38 million barrels per day in the third quarter of this year, the EIA’s October STEO showed. Its second quarter, first quarter, and overall 2023 figures were identical to those in the November STEO.

In its previous STEO, the EIA projected that surplus crude oil production capacity would come in at 4.41 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2024, 4.36 million barrels per day overall in 2024, and 4.03 million barrels per day overall in 2025.

All surplus crude oil production capacity highlighted above comes from OPEC, the STEOs showed.

In its STEOs, the EIA notes that differences in the reported historical production data across countries could result in some inconsistencies in the delineation between crude oil and other liquid fuels. It also highlights that the OPEC+ total comprises OPEC members subject to OPEC+ agreements, plus Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Brunei, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Mexico, Oman, Russia, South Sudan, and Sudan.

To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com