Gulf of Mexico Hurricane Season Looming Large

Gulf of Mexico Hurricane Season Looming Large
'Hurricane activity peaks around mid-August to mid-November'.

The Gulf of Mexico hurricane season is still looming large, Rystad Analyst Lu Ming Pang has warned in a new market note sent to Rigzone.

“Hurricane activity peaks around mid-August to mid-November, with hurricane intensity elevated when the La Nina phenomenon is present,” Pang stated in the note.

“This week, the National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in the U.S. updated its forecast to indicate an 86 percent chance of La Nina occurring this season, ultimately falling to a 60 percent potential from December 2022 to February 2023,” Pang added.

At the time of writing, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is tracking one weather pattern in the Atlantic. In a statement posted today at 2am EDT, the NHC outlined that the likelihood of cyclone formation from the weather pattern was near zero percent for the next 48 hours and 20 percent for the next five days.

“A tropical wave near northern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras is forecast to move across Central America during the next few days and emerge over the Bay of Campeche, where an area of low pressure could form on Friday,” the NHC statement noted. 

“Some gradual development of this system is possible while it moves northwestward over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico through the weekend,” the statement added.

Earlier this month, NOAA’s annual mid-season update issued by the Climate Prediction Center outlined that atmospheric and oceanic conditions still favor an above-normal 2022 Atlantic hurricane season.

Atlantic weather systems have severely affected oil and gas operations in the past. For example, at its peak, Hurricane Ida shut in 95.65 percent of Gulf of Mexico oil production on August 29, 2021, and 94.47 percent of Gulf of Mexico gas production on August 31, 2021, Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) figures show.

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