Fitch Solutions Reveals Latest Oil Price Forecasts

Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research has revealed its latest oil price forecasts through to 2026 in a new report sent to Rigzone.

The company now sees the Brent crude price averaging $102 per barrel this year, $95 per barrel in 2023, $88 per barrel in both 2024 and 2025, and $85 per barrel in 2026, according to the report. In a report sent to Rigzone last month, Fitch Solutions projected that Brent would average $105 per barrel this year, $100 per barrel in 2023, $88 per barrel in both 2024 and 2025, and $85 per barrel in 2026.

The Bloomberg Consensus, which Fitch Solutions is a contributor to and which was also included in both Fitch Solutions reports, currently sees Brent averaging $101 per barrel in 2022, $98 per barrel in 2023, $88 per barrel in 2024, $82 per barrel in 2025, and $80.1 per barrel in 2026. In October, the Bloomberg Consensus projected that Brent would average $101.7 per barrel in 2022, $94.6 per barrel in 2023, $87.5 per barrel in 2024, $82 per barrel in 2025, and $80.1 per barrel in 2026.

“The downward revision reflects the softening in prices seen over recent months, a bearish skew in market sentiment and a deteriorating macroeconomic environment,” Fitch Solutions stated in its latest oil price outlook report.

“That said, OPEC+ action is helping to keep a floor under prices and we see scope for a short-term rally over winter, amid tight global energy markets, a seasonal strengthening in demand and further declines in Russian exports,” Fitch Solutions added.

At its latest meeting, OPEC+ decided to adjust its overall production down by two million barrels per day from its August 2022 required production levels, starting in November 2022. OPEC+ is next scheduled to meet on December 4.

In its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released earlier this month, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) slightly raised its Brent oil price forecast for both 2022 and 2023 to $102.13 per barrel and $95.33 per barrel, respectively. In its previous STEO, which was released in October, the EIA projected that the Brent spot average would come in at $102.09 per barrel in 2022 and $94.58 per barrel in 2023.

Oil soared past $100 per barrel for the first time in years in February as Russian forces escalated a conflict with Ukraine. Brent’s lowest 2022 close, so far, was seen on January 3 at $78.98 per barrel, while its highest 2022 close, so far, was seen on March 8 at $127.98 per barrel. At the time of writing, the price of Brent crude oil is trading at $94.14 per barrel.

To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com