Fitch Solutions Reveals Latest Oil Price Forecasts
Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research has revealed its latest Brent crude oil price projections in an outlook report published earlier this week.
The report, which was sent to Rigzone, shows that analysts at Fitch Solutions expect Brent crude prices to average $53 per barrel this year, $51 per barrel in 2022, $55 per barrel in 2023 and $60 per barrel in 2024. These forecasts are unchanged from Fitch Solutions’ previous Brent oil price forecasts, which were published early last month.
The Bloomberg Consensus, which is also published in Fitch Solutions’ oil price outlook reports and which Fitch Solutions is a contributor to, forecasts that Brent will average $48 per barrel this year, $54.5 per barrel in 2022, $54 per barrel in 2023 and $56 per barrel in 2024. Last month’s Fitch Solutions report showed that the Bloomberg Consensus predicted Brent would average $47.8 per barrel this year, $53.5 per barrel in 2022, $54 per barrel in 2023 and $60.8 per barrel in 2024.
“We maintain our 2021 Brent forecast, with the benchmark to set average $53 per barrel in 2021, as OPEC looks to poised to regulate oil supply based on monthly changes in the demand outlook,” analysts at Fitch Solutions stated in the company’s latest oil price outlook, adding that the global roll-out of Covid-19 vaccines also provides a boost to global economic recovery and fuel demand.
“We expect 2021 global fuel demand to grow by 4.6 million barrels per day after falling by 7.1 million barrels per day in 2020 as the global economy continues to recover and transport and commerce return closer to historic pre-pandemic levels,” the analysts added.
“However, near-term demand growth is stalling due to the resurgence of Covid-19 across North America, Europe and the Middle East and is likely set for deeper declines over the next several months. This adds to our view for neutral to bullish prices across most of 2021 with difficult conditions to persist through the first half of the year,” the analysts continued.
Analysts noted that their mid-term forecast takes the view that following the pandemic, most markets will experience a lower level of demand growth than was seen prior to Covid-19, reflecting softer real GDP growth, rising energy efficiency, falling energy intensity, fuel switching and persistent social distancing behaviors.
At the time of writing, the price of Brent crude oil stood at $54.05 per barrel. Brent prices stood at over $60 per barrel in January last year before they plunged to under $25 per barrel in March and under $22 per barrel in April.
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