Executives Predict WTI Crude Oil Price

Executives Predict WTI Crude Oil Price
Executives from oil and gas firms revealed where they expect the WTI crude oil price to be at various points in the future as part of the latest Dallas Fed Energy Survey.
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Executives from oil and gas firms have revealed where they expect the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price to be at various points in the future as part of the third quarter Dallas Fed Energy Survey.

The average response executives from 134 oil and gas firms gave when asked what they expect the WTI crude oil price to be at the end of 2024 was $72.66 per barrel, the survey showed. The low forecast came in at $55 per barrel, the high forecast was $100 per barrel, and the spot price during the survey was $70.82 per barrel, the survey highlighted.

In the second quarter Dallas Fed Energy Survey, the average response executives from 135 oil and gas firms gave when asked the same question was $78.66 per barrel. The low forecast in that survey was $62.50 per barrel, the high forecast was $100 per barrel, and the WTI spot price during the survey was $79.94 per barrel, that survey pointed out.

The third quarter Dallas Fed Energy Survey also asked participants where they expect WTI prices to be in six months, one year, two years, and five years. Executives from 119 oil and gas firms answered this question and gave a mean response of $73 per barrel for the six month mark, $76 per barrel for the year mark, $81 per barrel for the two year mark, and $87 per barrel for the five year mark, the survey showed.

Executives from 123 oil and gas firms answered this question in the second quarter Dallas Fed Energy Survey. They gave a mean response of $78 per barrel for the six month mark, $80 per barrel for the year mark, $83 per barrel for the two year mark, and $88 per barrel for the five year mark, that survey outlined.

The oil price was highlighted several times in a ‘comments’ section of the latest Dallas Fed Energy Survey, which the survey outlined showed comments from respondents’ completed surveys that had been edited for publication.

“Turbulent commodity pricing markets, specifically WTI crude oil and Henry Hub natural gas, do not allow for confident future performance projections when it comes to net income,” one exploration and production firm said, the survey showed.

“The current disconnect between oil price and physical supply is worrisome,” an oil and gas support services firm said, according to the survey.

“Prices are not supportive of the long-term investments needed to maintain adequate supplies through the energy transition. As a result, the current underinvestment will lead to significant inventory shortfalls in the medium term, followed by rapid price escalation,” it added.

“It’s going to be a very bumpy ride ... again,” it continued.

“Middle Eastern politics seem to play less and less of a factor in determining the price of oil, and the price more and more reflects worldwide economics,” another oil and gas support services firm said, the survey showed.

A research note sent to Rigzone by the JPM Commodities Research team on Monday showed that J.P. Morgan is forecasting that the WTI crude price will average $78 per barrel in 2024 and $71 per barrel in 2025.

A report sent to Rigzone on Tuesday by Standard Chartered Bank Head of Commodities Research Paul Horsnell showed that the company expects the NYMEX WTI basis nearby future crude oil price to average $79 per barrel in the third quarter of 2024, $84 per barrel in the fourth quarter, and $89 per barrel overall in 2025.

In its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released last month, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected that the WTI spot price will average $78.80 per barrel in 2024 and $79.63 per barrel in 2025.

To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com


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Andreas Exarheas
Editor | Rigzone